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Basketball Prospectus

Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus

2007 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 12/31/2007

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments. LAST YEAR represents 2006 rank.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 NE 51.8% 5 52.7% 16-0 42.8% 1 -6.1% 8 2.9% 7
2 IND 33.0% 7 31.4% 13-3 28.3% 2 -10.8% 3 -6.1% 32
3 DAL 23.9% 10 27.2% 13-3 19.0% 4 -5.8% 10 -0.9% 18
4 JAC 23.7% 6 22.0% 11-5 20.8% 3 -3.3% 12 -0.4% 15
5 GB 21.0% 15 27.2% 13-3 17.3% 5 -1.3% 15 2.4% 8
6 SD 18.9% 2 16.7% 11-5 4.8% 15 -9.8% 5 4.2% 4
7 TB 17.8% 31 22.3% 9-7 7.7% 10 -10.2% 4 -0.1% 12
8 PIT 17.5% 12 19.4% 10-6 6.8% 12 -12.3% 2 -1.7% 21
9 SEA 11.7% 25 20.2% 10-6 5.6% 14 -5.4% 11 0.7% 11
10 TEN 8.8% 24 3.2% 10-6 -4.0% 21 -13.5% 1 -0.6% 17
11 PHI 7.7% 3 0.8% 8-8 10.2% 8 -3.2% 13 -5.7% 31
12 WAS 7.7% 23 0.2% 9-7 1.0% 17 -7.2% 6 -0.5% 16
13 CLE 5.8% 30 9.1% 10-6 6.9% 11 7.6% 22 6.6% 2
14 MIN 4.9% 22 7.1% 8-8 3.4% 16 0.2% 18 1.7% 9
15 CIN -0.1% 11 6.8% 7-9 11.0% 6 10.1% 24 -0.9% 19
16 NYG -0.6% 8 -4.4% 10-6 -2.5% 19 -2.9% 14 -1.0% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 HOU -2.1% 28 -7.7% 8-8 5.7% 13 13.3% 30 5.5% 3
18 DEN -3.2% 18 0.4% 7-9 7.8% 9 6.3% 21 -4.8% 28
19 BUF -3.8% 16 -9.4% 7-9 -7.6% 22 0.1% 17 3.9% 6
20 CHI -4.4% 4 -6.5% 7-9 -20.4% 31 -6.9% 7 9.1% 1
21 NO -5.1% 9 -4.9% 7-9 10.3% 7 11.4% 27 -3.9% 26
22 BAL -7.0% 1 -14.4% 5-11 -12.8% 26 -6.1% 9 -0.3% 13
23 ARI -10.1% 26 -0.7% 8-8 -0.8% 18 5.4% 20 -3.9% 25
24 DET -19.9% 29 -17.4% 7-9 -2.7% 20 13.9% 31 -3.3% 23
25 NYJ -20.8% 19 -23.3% 4-12 -10.8% 25 10.9% 25 0.9% 10
26 KC -21.2% 13 -23.5% 4-12 -18.0% 29 -0.5% 16 -3.7% 24
27 CAR -21.3% 14 -22.3% 7-9 -15.2% 27 0.7% 19 -5.4% 30
28 ATL -23.1% 21 -21.5% 4-12 -10.7% 24 12.1% 29 -0.4% 14
29 MIA -28.1% 17 -35.3% 1-15 -8.8% 23 16.7% 32 -2.7% 22
30 OAK -28.7% 32 -28.3% 4-12 -15.4% 28 8.3% 23 -5.0% 29
31 STL -33.9% 20 -31.3% 3-13 -18.7% 30 11.0% 26 -4.3% 27
32 SF -38.0% 27 -33.2% 5-11 -30.5% 32 11.5% 28 4.1% 5
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
  • 2007 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as described in this article.
  • VARIANCE (VAR.) measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2007
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
1 NE 51.8% 16-0 14.2 1 40.6% 1 0.1% 19 13.8 1 14.8% 19
2 IND 33.0% 13-3 12.4 2 22.2% 4 2.5% 8 12.5 2 16.4% 14
3 DAL 23.9% 13-3 10.8 5 17.0% 6 -1.5% 21 11.0 6 24.2% 3
4 JAC 23.7% 11-5 11.3 3 31.1% 2 1.7% 10 10.7 7 15.6% 16
5 GB 21.0% 13-3 11.1 4 19.4% 5 -5.6% 29 11.5 3 21.7% 6
6 SD 18.9% 11-5 9.6 7 27.1% 3 0.2% 18 11.3 5 25.0% 2
7 TB 17.8% 9-7 10.1 6 13.5% 9 -7.4% 30 10.0 9 22.1% 5
8 PIT 17.5% 10-6 9.3 9 5.6% 14 -3.3% 24 11.4 4 22.7% 4
9 SEA 11.7% 10-6 9.1 11 13.8% 8 -11.0% 32 10.7 8 12.1% 25
10 TEN 8.8% 10-6 9.2 10 2.2% 16 1.4% 13 8.1 15 18.3% 10
11 PHI 7.7% 8-8 9.5 8 7.6% 11 4.3% 5 9.1 11 14.5% 20
12 WAS 7.7% 9-7 8.3 15 10.1% 10 4.4% 4 8.7 12 15.0% 18
13 CLE 5.8% 10-6 8.9 12 14.7% 7 -5.1% 28 8.5 14 6.2% 32
14 MIN 4.9% 8-8 8.8 13 6.2% 13 -3.9% 26 9.5 10 19.5% 9
15 CIN -0.1% 7-9 8.5 14 0.8% 19 -3.2% 23 7.9 17 8.4% 31
16 NYG -0.6% 10-6 7.9 17 -1.7% 21 1.1% 14 8.6 13 8.4% 30
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2007
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
17 HOU -2.1% 8-8 7.7 18 1.0% 18 2.7% 7 7.9 18 13.8% 22
18 DEN -3.2% 7-9 7.3 21 2.1% 17 1.1% 17 5.7 21 34.2% 1
19 BUF -3.8% 7-9 8.3 16 0.5% 20 5.1% 2 4.9 26 11.8% 26
20 CHI -4.4% 7-9 7.4 20 7.3% 12 1.5% 12 7.6 20 14.4% 21
21 NO -5.1% 7-9 7.5 19 4.0% 15 -3.5% 25 7.8 19 13.7% 23
22 BAL -7.0% 5-11 6.9 22 -13.8% 24 1.7% 11 5.0 25 15.4% 17
23 ARI -10.1% 8-8 6.2 24 -12.3% 22 -9.3% 31 8.1 16 20.0% 8
24 DET -19.9% 7-9 6.3 23 -25.3% 28 3.5% 6 5.7 22 18.1% 12
25 NYJ -20.8% 4-12 5.0 28 -12.5% 23 5.1% 1 5.4 24 11.6% 28
26 KC -21.2% 4-12 5.1 27 -25.0% 27 1.1% 15 4.5 28 21.5% 7
27 CAR -21.3% 7-9 5.8 25 -19.5% 25 1.1% 16 5.6 23 16.6% 13
28 ATL -23.1% 4-12 5.5 26 -24.2% 26 -1.2% 20 4.0 29 15.9% 15
29 MIA -28.1% 1-15 4.1 29 -31.4% 31 4.9% 3 3.8 30 12.4% 24
30 OAK -28.7% 4-12 4.0 30 -27.1% 29 2.0% 9 4.9 27 18.3% 11
31 STL -33.9% 3-13 3.6 32 -30.9% 30 -2.7% 22 3.7 32 9.6% 29
32 SF -38.0% 5-11 3.9 31 -32.2% 32 -4.7% 27 3.7 31 11.7% 27

DVOA version: 5.0