DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Revised as of 01/15/08, through the Divisional Round.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw
assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will
be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current
Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA
ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins
for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each
playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye
week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents
odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|
| NE | 65.7% | 44.5% |
| GB | 71.8% | 31.3% |
| SD | 34.2% | 17.2% |
| NYG | 28.1% | 6.8% |
| 
