Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics


DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 1/6/09, through Week 18

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NYG56.4%36.3%18.8%
CAR77.4%34.9%17.1%
PIT68.2%33.7%17.1%
TEN55.8%31.7%15.5%
PHI43.6%22.2%12.0%
BAL44.2%21.6%11.7%
SD31.8%13.0%5.6%
ARI22.6%6.7%2.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

MatchupChance
Manning Bowl (Colts-Giants)0.0%
Keystone Super Bowl (Steelers-Eagles)7.6%
Flacco Bowl (Ravens-Eagles)4.6%