Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics



2009 NCAA S&P RATINGS, DEFENSE

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.

Passing Downs are defined as:

  • second down with 8 or more yards to go
  • third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go

All other downs are Standard Downs Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on total and offensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
1 Alabama 14-0 149.4 1 0 138.6 6 167.0 1 150.2 1 155.1 9
2 Florida 13-1 148.3 3 1 139.4 5 161.6 3 132.1 9 187.4 3
3 Oklahoma 8-5 147.6 2 -1 141.6 3 159.0 5 145.3 2 173.6 5
4 TCU 12-1 145.0 5 1 143.8 2 153.8 6 143.3 3 140.8 10
5 Nebraska 10-4 143.2 4 -1 132.0 10 160.0 4 136.4 5 194.4 1
6 Iowa 11-2 138.7 6 0 125.2 15 164.0 2 142.8 4 133.2 14
7 Ohio State 11-2 134.0 8 1 132.9 8 142.8 8 133.8 7 180.8 4
8 Boise State 14-0 133.6 10 2 123.3 18 150.9 7 111.8 32 171.9 7
9 Texas 13-1 131.2 7 -2 135.9 7 134.3 16 127.9 12 192.9 2
10 Penn State 11-2 127.9 9 -1 121.0 20 141.5 9 115.5 20 138.6 12
11 North Carolina 8-5 127.6 12 1 126.0 14 136.5 14 125.2 13 168.2 8
12 LSU 9-4 126.8 13 1 130.2 11 129.8 18 135.6 6 120.6 21
13 Air Force 8-5 125.7 18 5 121.0 19 138.2 12 113.1 28 131.8 15
14 Clemson 9-5 125.2 11 -3 128.3 12 126.0 19 131.3 10 128.5 16
15 South Carolina 7-6 122.8 14 -1 115.4 27 139.0 10 118.6 16 172.1 6
16 Virginia Tech 10-3 122.0 16 0 115.5 26 136.5 13 133.0 8 124.2 19
17 Utah 10-3 121.2 17 0 113.6 32 138.3 11 114.8 22 134.7 13
18 Oregon 10-3 119.2 15 -3 127.9 13 117.1 26 129.2 11 115.6 28
19 Ole Miss 9-4 116.5 23 4 109.8 40 134.1 17 120.6 15 115.4 30
20 Oklahoma State 9-4 116.4 19 -1 114.8 29 122.1 22 116.4 19 124.6 18
RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
21 Middle Tennessee 10-3 115.8 21 0 119.0 22 117.6 25 114.8 23 114.3 33
22 West Virginia 9-4 114.7 20 -2 119.5 21 117.1 27 114.5 24 119.2 22
23 Wisconsin 10-3 114.4 28 5 144.0 1 106.2 41 118.5 17 112.3 39
24 Miami-FL 9-4 113.1 30 6 123.3 17 110.1 34 117.0 18 104.0 53
25 Boston College 8-5 112.6 25 0 132.1 9 106.2 42 111.8 31 139.7 11
26 BYU 11-2 112.6 35 9 110.7 37 121.3 24 110.4 34 113.2 37
27 Tennessee 7-6 111.7 22 -5 108.8 44 124.0 21 110.4 35 124.8 17
28 Purdue 5-7 111.2 24 -4 97.9 65 134.4 15 113.1 26 113.7 36
29 Virginia 3-9 110.1 29 0 101.6 55 125.7 20 110.2 37 118.7 25
30 Arizona State 4-8 109.8 26 -4 110.3 38 115.4 29 121.2 14 116.4 26
31 South Florida 8-5 109.1 39 8 112.3 35 111.4 32 115.0 21 114.2 35
32 Texas Tech 9-4 107.7 32 0 98.7 60 122.1 23 108.2 38 119.2 23
33 Mississippi State 5-7 107.6 33 0 117.8 23 102.2 51 110.3 36 114.2 34
34 Colorado 3-9 107.2 31 -3 114.7 30 104.7 47 113.5 25 100.6 61
35 Pittsburgh 10-3 106.3 34 -1 105.8 48 113.1 30 105.5 46 122.0 20
36 East Carolina 9-5 106.3 48 12 112.8 33 108.0 37 106.9 40 108.1 41
37 Troy 9-4 106.1 43 6 114.8 28 104.7 46 100.0 60 105.6 49
38 Central Florida 8-5 105.4 27 -11 140.6 4 93.0 74 111.4 33 108.7 40
39 UCLA 7-6 105.3 37 -2 109.6 42 106.3 40 112.4 29 118.9 24
40 Minnesota 6-7 104.3 40 0 106.5 47 108.4 36 113.1 27 87.7 93
RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
41 Auburn 8-5 104.0 36 -5 102.0 53 110.9 33 100.4 57 115.3 31
42 USC 9-4 103.8 38 -4 98.5 62 115.4 28 105.8 44 108.0 43
43 Arkansas 8-5 103.4 41 -2 113.9 31 100.0 56 101.6 55 115.5 29
44 Ohio 9-5 102.7 45 1 108.3 45 102.7 50 108.0 39 114.7 32
45 Louisiana Tech 4-8 101.4 46 1 102.0 54 107.7 38 106.8 41 105.5 50
46 Rutgers 9-4 101.3 44 -2 109.6 41 100.7 54 100.3 58 116.1 27
47 Arizona 8-5 101.2 42 -5 97.2 69 109.6 35 111.8 30 90.7 85
48 Connecticut 8-5 100.6 53 5 105.8 49 101.6 52 99.6 62 103.6 54
49 Michigan State 6-7 100.1 47 -2 115.7 25 96.2 63 106.2 43 101.5 59
50 Georgia 8-5 100.1 52 2 112.7 34 94.0 68 105.8 45 107.8 45
51 Cincinnati 12-1 99.0 49 -2 109.5 43 94.7 66 103.7 51 93.8 75
52 Notre Dame 6-6 98.7 50 -2 109.8 39 94.3 67 104.6 48 106.7 47
53 Wake Forest 5-7 97.7 54 1 96.7 71 105.2 44 102.0 53 99.8 63
54 Central Michigan 12-2 97.0 59 5 95.1 75 103.3 48 93.2 84 106.3 48
55 Oregon State 8-5 96.8 65 10 102.5 51 98.0 60 103.7 50 90.7 84
56 Syracuse 4-8 96.7 55 -1 124.2 16 84.8 98 102.6 52 108.1 42
57 Navy 10-4 96.4 66 9 105.2 50 93.4 70 98.4 70 95.0 73
58 Tulsa 5-7 96.2 58 0 107.3 46 90.7 79 104.3 49 97.8 69
59 Wyoming 7-6 96.0 61 2 96.8 70 100.3 55 95.1 78 99.0 64
60 Nevada 8-5 95.6 51 -9 116.5 24 89.8 81 101.8 54 85.0 104
RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
61 Baylor 4-8 95.2 60 -1 90.4 94 105.3 43 98.0 71 104.6 52
62 Vanderbilt 2-10 95.2 56 -6 97.4 67 99.6 58 101.4 56 101.3 60
63 Michigan 5-7 94.5 63 0 91.2 90 103.0 49 99.6 64 95.6 71
64 Bowling Green 7-6 93.9 62 -2 85.3 105 107.0 39 89.3 101 112.3 38
65 Texas A&M 6-7 93.8 68 3 92.8 86 99.8 57 92.8 88 107.8 44
66 Kentucky 7-6 93.5 64 -2 99.0 58 92.1 75 105.0 47 103.2 56
67 Northwestern 8-5 93.5 69 2 94.5 82 98.2 59 94.1 81 101.6 58
68 Marshall 7-6 93.3 82 14 94.7 80 97.8 61 98.5 69 95.8 70
69 Missouri 8-5 93.2 57 -12 100.5 56 91.6 78 106.7 42 88.7 91
70 New Mexico State 4-9 92.7 70 0 93.5 85 96.2 64 97.3 74 90.0 88
71 California 8-5 92.6 72 1 111.4 36 86.4 91 99.6 63 98.9 65
72 Miami-OH 1-11 91.9 67 -5 83.6 107 104.9 45 88.7 102 105.3 51
73 Washington 5-7 91.3 71 -2 100.4 57 89.3 82 100.3 59 95.4 72
74 Maryland 2-10 91.3 84 10 98.8 59 88.8 86 99.2 66 86.1 99
75 Illinois 3-9 91.2 73 -2 88.6 97 96.5 62 92.7 89 88.0 92
76 Utah State 4-8 90.8 74 -2 92.4 87 93.8 69 96.2 77 86.9 97
77 Georgia Tech 11-3 90.7 77 0 91.6 89 93.1 73 96.4 76 81.1 107
78 Memphis 2-10 90.5 78 0 97.3 68 88.2 88 91.9 92 91.3 82
79 San Jose State 2-10 90.5 76 -3 83.0 109 112.1 31 90.9 95 99.8 62
80 Florida State 7-6 90.3 85 5 91.0 92 93.3 72 89.5 100 103.2 55
RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
81 Kent State 5-7 90.2 79 -2 93.8 83 91.7 77 97.4 72 92.6 78
82 UAB 5-7 89.8 81 -1 102.3 52 85.3 95 92.8 87 79.7 109
83 SMU 8-5 89.7 100 17 94.7 79 90.0 80 100.0 61 90.7 83
84 Fresno State 8-5 89.5 75 -9 94.7 78 89.2 84 96.7 75 84.1 105
85 Louisville 4-8 89.3 83 -2 95.4 74 86.9 90 99.0 67 85.6 102
86 Kansas 5-7 88.8 87 1 80.3 112 101.2 53 92.3 91 102.6 57
87 Army 4-8 88.7 104 17 96.4 73 80.4 107 98.7 68 74.1 115
88 Southern Miss 7-6 88.7 80 -8 98.7 61 84.7 99 93.5 82 90.2 87
89 Northern Illinois 7-6 88.3 90 1 97.4 66 85.5 94 97.4 73 98.5 66
90 Indiana 4-8 88.3 86 -4 94.5 81 85.8 93 91.3 94 92.3 79
91 Colorado State 3-9 88.1 88 -3 87.1 100 93.4 71 89.8 98 94.8 74
92 San Diego State 4-8 87.8 92 0 94.8 77 84.2 100 99.4 65 77.6 111
93 Buffalo 5-7 87.7 89 -4 82.9 110 95.8 65 90.8 96 93.4 77
94 New Mexico 1-11 87.5 91 -3 90.3 95 89.2 83 93.0 86 83.7 106
95 Florida International 3-9 87.5 99 4 88.1 99 91.9 76 91.9 93 85.8 101
96 UL-Monroe 6-6 87.1 93 -3 93.6 84 85.0 97 88.6 103 97.8 68
97 Duke 5-7 86.0 97 0 88.3 98 87.4 89 90.2 97 77.0 112
98 Ball State 2-10 85.8 94 -4 98.0 64 78.8 112 89.7 99 86.1 100
99 Temple 9-4 85.8 95 -4 96.4 72 81.1 106 94.3 80 86.9 95
100 Arkansas State 4-8 85.6 102 2 98.2 63 79.2 111 85.4 110 107.3 46
RK TEAM RECORD DEF.
S&P+		 LAST
WK		 CHANGE RUSH.
DEF.		 RK PASS.
DEF.		 RK STD.
DOWNS		 RK PASS.
DOWNS		 RK
101 UNLV 5-7 85.5 98 -3 87.0 101 88.4 87 85.1 111 93.5 76
102 Akron 3-9 85.5 96 -6 85.1 106 88.9 85 95.1 79 73.3 116
103 Kansas State 6-6 85.4 101 -2 95.0 76 82.2 104 87.8 104 97.9 67
104 Stanford 8-5 85.3 103 -1 89.4 96 85.2 96 93.5 83 86.3 98
105 Houston 10-4 82.4 105 0 85.4 104 83.3 102 86.0 108 90.3 86
106 Hawaii 6-7 81.4 107 1 86.7 103 79.4 110 84.2 113 92.1 81
107 Rice 2-10 81.3 109 2 91.1 91 76.6 116 83.3 114 81.0 108
108 UTEP 4-8 80.6 110 2 83.0 108 81.7 105 92.3 90 72.6 117
109 Idaho 7-6 80.3 108 -1 90.5 93 76.3 117 85.7 109 76.1 113
110 Iowa State 7-6 80.2 106 -4 92.1 88 73.7 118 86.5 106 86.9 96
111 UL-Lafayette 6-6 80.2 112 1 86.8 102 76.9 114 93.1 85 66.4 119
112 Western Michigan 5-7 80.1 111 -1 82.7 111 82.6 103 84.8 112 85.5 103
113 NC State 5-7 78.1 114 1 77.7 114 83.6 101 78.6 116 89.0 89
114 Tulane 3-9 78.1 113 -1 79.0 113 80.2 108 86.6 105 62.3 120
115 North Texas 2-10 76.5 115 0 76.9 116 79.4 109 78.4 117 92.3 80
116 Toledo 5-7 75.9 116 0 77.2 115 76.8 115 80.7 115 77.6 110
117 Washington State 1-11 74.7 117 0 76.1 118 77.1 113 86.1 107 88.8 90
118 Western Kentucky 0-12 73.6 118 0 76.6 117 72.8 120 77.8 118 68.2 118
119 Eastern Michigan 1-11 71.3 119 0 67.6 120 86.0 92 74.3 119 87.1 94
120 Florida Atlantic 5-7 71.3 120 0 72.6 119 73.6 119 73.9 120 75.4 114