Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Jan 2018

Week 17 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Traditionally, for the last week of the year, Quick Reads is a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 17. I'll be writing that article for Tuesday. For now, here's a list of the best and worst games of the 2017 season with final opponent adjustments:

Quarterbacks

Best Games

This was shockingly the best DYAR game of Brady's career, ahead of his best games from 2007. It was just the ninth 300-DYAR game we have on record (back to 1989 in the regular season, 1995 for the playoffs). It's also notable that two of the five best games of the season came against New Orleans in Weeks 1 and 2. The Saints were horrible on defense for several years before improving this season, but it looks like that improvement was still going on in the early portions of the season, so the opponent adjustments may have been a little strong. (Brady had 250 YAR before we added in opponent adjustments.)

Brady had four games in the top 50 this season, but that wasn't the most. Philip Rivers had five, four of which came in Week 10 or later as part of the Chargers' "too little, too late" finish to the season.

     

Worst Games

Dalton and Brett Hundley were the only quarterbacks with two games each in the bottom 20.

Running Backs

Best Games

No surprises here for regular readers. Gurley had four games in the top 20 this season; Kamara and fellow rookie Kareem Hunt had three each.

Worst Games

Pretty impressive to see Stewart in first and third place on this list. LeSean McCoy also had two games in the bottom ten.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Best Games

     

Jones had the 13th game on record for a wide receiver with at least 120 DYAR. Allen, Brown, and Hopkins each had two games in the top 20.

Worst Games

For the record, that's -52.5 total DYAR for Walker, -52.2 for Westbrook, and -51.9 for Maclin.

For those of you who want to see Week 17, here are the tables with the best and worst DYAR totals for the final week of the season.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Philip Rivers LACH
29/37
387
3
0
1
163
161
2
OAK
2.
Matt Ryan ATL
28/44
317
1
0
1
149
143
5
CAR
3.
Andy Dalton CIN
23/43
222
3
0
1
128
128
0
BAL
4.
Matthew Stafford DET
20/29
323
3
0
2
121
121
-1
GB
5.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
20/33
292
2
2
0
107
107
0
LARM
6.
Case Keenum MIN
21/29
189
1
0
2
86
88
-2
CHI
7.
Jameis Winston TB
28/51
363
1
3
2
83
71
12
NO
8.
Dak Prescott DAL
17/30
179
1
0
1
65
59
6
PHI
9.
DeShone Kizer CLE
16/30
314
2
1
6
62
43
19
PIT
10.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
19/27
204
1
0
4
59
44
15
MIA
11.
Derek Carr OAK
19/28
243
1
1
2
56
68
-12
LACH
12.
Patrick Mahomes KC
22/35
284
0
1
2
55
57
-1
DEN
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Drew Brees NO
22/30
245
1
0
2
52
51
2
TB
14.
Russell Wilson SEA
18/29
221
2
0
3
51
62
-11
ARI
15.
David Fales MIA
30/42
265
1
1
1
47
55
-8
BUF
16.
Tom Brady NE
19/37
190
2
0
2
40
40
0
NYJ
17.
Marcus Mariota TEN
12/21
134
1
0
3
39
13
27
JAC
18.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
21/36
178
0
0
1
16
16
1
MIN
19.
Drew Stanton ARI
15/34
145
1
1
1
-11
-11
0
SEA
20.
Nate Sudfeld PHI
19/23
134
0
0
3
-13
-20
7
DAL
21.
Paxton Lynch DEN
21/31
254
2
2
5
-32
-32
0
KC
22.
T.J. Yates HOU
14/24
137
0
1
2
-32
-35
3
IND
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Bryce Petty NYJ
19/36
232
0
0
4
-38
-38
0
NE
24.
Jacoby Brissett IND
15/25
114
1
0
1
-43
-47
4
HOU
25.
Landry Jones PIT
23/27
239
1
1
3
-44
-44
0
CLE
26.
Nick Foles PHI
4/11
39
0
1
0
-70
-70
0
DAL
27.
Eli Manning NYG
10/28
132
1
1
2
-76
-76
0
WAS
28.
Joe Flacco BAL
25/47
203
2
1
1
-85
-85
0
CIN
29.
Cam Newton CAR
14/33
180
1
3
2
-112
-94
-17
ATL
30.
Blake Bortles JAC
15/34
159
0
2
2
-112
-116
5
TEN
31.
Brett Hundley GB
15/24
172
1
2
4
-115
-106
-9
DET
32.
Sean Mannion LARM
20/34
169
0
0
3
-135
-141
5
SF
33.
Kirk Cousins WAS
20/37
158
0
3
3
-230
-242
12
NYG


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dion Lewis NE
26
93
1
6/7
40
1
66
43
23
NYJ
2.
Alvin Kamara NO
9
44
1
6/7
84
0
57
21
37
TB
3.
Latavius Murray MIN
20
111
2
1/1
3
0
51
51
-1
CHI
4.
Devonta Freeman ATL
11
23
0
9/11
85
1
36
-5
41
CAR
5.
Stevan Ridley PIT
17
80
1
0/0
0
0
35
35
0
CLE


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Latavius Murray MIN
20
111
2
1/1
3
0
51
51
-1
CHI
2.
Dion Lewis NE
26
93
1
6/7
40
1
66
43
23
NYJ
3.
Stevan Ridley PIT
17
80
1
0/0
0
0
35
35
0
CLE
4.
Orleans Darkwa NYG
20
154
1
0/1
0
0
26
31
-4
WAS
5.
Anthony Sherman KC
14
40
1
3/4
21
0
32
31
1
DEN


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Isaiah Crowell CLE
15
21
0
0/0
0
0
-32
-32
0
PIT


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derrick Henry TEN
28
51
0
1/2
66
1
-28
-63
35
JAC


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Albert Wilson KC
10
11
147
14.7
0
75
DEN
2.
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT
9
10
143
15.9
1
58
CLE
3.
Doug Baldwin SEA
4
5
90
22.5
2
58
ARI
4.
Travis Benjamin LACH
4
5
96
24.0
1
58
OAK
5.
Tyler Boyd CIN
5
7
91
18.2
1
53
BAL


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dede Westbrook JAC
1
9
9
9.0
0
-52
TEN

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 01 Jan 2018

12 comments, Last at 05 Jan 2018, 10:03pm by Arkaein

Comments

1
by billprudden :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 11:04am

I didn't watch WASH. Was Kirk avoiding injury? Did OL finally collapse? What did y'all see?

4
by dmb :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 1:08pm

Trent Williams was finally shut down prior to the game, and capable 3rd tackle Ty Nsekhe left with an injury early in the first quarter; this left UDFA Guard Tyler Catalina playing at LT for the rest of the game... protection predictably suffered a bit. However, Cousins really did play very poorly, making several bad decisions and several bad throws.

5
by billprudden :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 3:56pm

Curious. Thanks.

2
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 11:22am

Foles ' -70 is impressive in one quarter of work.

3
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 11:58am

Was just thinking similar about Peterman's -220 in one half for 5th worst of the year.

6
by justanothersteve :: Mon, 01/01/2018 - 6:00pm

The Packers were hoping for some trade value playing Brett Hundley. So much for that idea.

7
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 01/02/2018 - 3:35pm

I was hoping for a magic pony that poops jellybeans and rainbows, and I think my hope was more realistic than theirs was if that's the case.

8
by jtr :: Wed, 01/03/2018 - 11:24am

Back in 2011, Matt Flynn somehow put up 480 yds and 6 TDs against Detroit as Green Bay's backup. That earned him a contract with $10M guaranteed from Seattle the next season, where he was promptly beat out for the starting job by a certain third-round rookie. Had Flynn still been under contract by GB, he probably would have drawn something like a second round pick as trade bait to somebody who badly needed a QB. It wasn't totally crazy for GB to think that Hundley could get hot for a couple of games, although the 2017 squad wasn't nearly as high-powered an offense as a 2011 squad with prime Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings.

9
by Will Allen :: Wed, 01/03/2018 - 11:56am

Exactly. Flukey stuff happens with some consistency, it's just unpredictable what the flavor of flukeyness will be. Hundley having two good games in a row would not have been the biggest upset in NFL history, so it was worth a shot. Even getting a third or fourth round pick would have had considerable value.

10
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Thu, 01/04/2018 - 7:37am

On the other side of the coin, that 2011 Detroit secondary was ravaged by injuries, and starting a bunch of practice squad/waiver-wire refugees in the secondary (New Orleans put up >600 yards of offense on them the very next week in the Wildcard game). This year's Lions were only average in pass defense, but they were far more competent than the 2011 crew.

Edit: Probably the most important factor is that Matt Flynn was far better then Brett Hundley.

11
by LionInAZ :: Thu, 01/04/2018 - 6:45pm

And yet Flynn is not playing for anyone, even the Packers. At least Hundley has a chance to improve.

12
by Arkaein :: Fri, 01/05/2018 - 10:03pm

Hundley has not player well overall, but GB's receivers did him zero favors the last 2 weeks of the season.

1-2 dropped TDs and an INT that bounced directly off of a RB's chest are only the start of it.