Week 9 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Want to be a smarter fan without taking any remedial classes in math?

It's easy. Just be patient.

Too often, fans and media alike take one small sample of data and use it to as a data point to back up their opinion or further their narrative. It's a perfect example of how statistics aren't supposed to be used.

Take Kurt Warner [1]. His six-turnover day against the Panthers led to talk that the veteran's days behind center for the Cardinals were numbered, and that the team needed to consider giving Matt Leinart [2] an opportunity.

Of course, as we mentioned in Quick Reads last week, having such an awful day wasn't a sign of anything beyond a bad game; against the Bears on Sunday, of course, Warner rebounded with five touchdowns in a dominant performance. Warner's dismal performance, only a week old, is all but forgotten.

The other quarterback that experienced a huge upswing in performance this week was Jacksonville's David Garrard [3], who went from awful against Tennessee to excellent versus Kansas City. Garrard's job security has been questioned since this offseason, when draft pundits suggested that the Jaguars might shoot for Mark Sanchez with their first-round pick. (They'll say the same things about Florida favorite Tim Tebow this year.)

The reason why Garrard was considered a disappointment last year, though, was absurd. He'd earned a $60 million contract extension after the 2007 season because of his ability to avoid mistakes, having thrown only three interceptions in 325 attempts while leading the Jaguars to the playoffs. Expressed as a percentage, it means Garrard threw interceptions on 0.9 percent of his attempts, an absurd, unsustainable percentage. Over the previous 30 years, only a handful of quarterbacks had put up an interception rate below 1.5 percent. Not a single one of them had come close to doing so in the subsequent season, and neither did Garrard -- that interception rate rose to a slightly-above-average 2.4 percent, and when you consider that he played four additional games in the 2008 season, Garrard's raw interception total went from three to 13. The idea that Garrard had some sort of magical ability to avoid turnovers was foolish, and history said so.

Now, apply that to another quarterback expected to lose his job sooner rather than later, the Redskins' Jason Campbell [4]. Campbell had average interception rates of 2.9 percent and 2.6 percent during his first two years as a pro, but last year, he threw picks on a league-low 1.2 percent of his throws.

This year, he's at 3.5 percent through eight games, and it's seen as a sign of his poor performance. We'll discuss Campbell's half-season later on in Quick Reads, but there's no reason to believe that Campbell has experienced some dramatic decline in his decision-making or isn't cut out to be an NFL quarterback. (The difference between a rate of 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, over a full-season, is three interceptions.) His interception rate has just regressed to the mean.

When you've got three hours of talk radio to fill or a bar argument to win, speculating wildly and groping for any fact on the wild ride to the conclusion is the name of the game. Maybe that will never change. But if actually want to reconcile what's happening on the field with reality -- and be right in advance instead of after the fact -- have a little patience.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Kurt Warner	ARI	22/31	261	5	0	188	190	-2
After starting with two incompletions to Larry Fitzgerald [6], Warner went on one of his terrifying hot streaks: 20-of-23, 233 yards, and four touchdowns. Tommie Harris's ejection and an injury to Charles Tillman helped, but when Warner gets in a rhythm like that, there's no better quarterback in the league.
2.	Carson Palmer	CIN	20/33	224	1	0	187	183	5
Palmer had a big day on third down, going 10-of-16 for 120 yards, seven first downs, and a touchdown. He also drew two pass interference penalties with Chad Ochocinco, including a crucial 24-yard DPI on fourth-and-2 from the Ravens 39. Considering the dramatic improvement exhibited by the Bengals this year following Palmer's return from injury, it's a surprise he hasn't received at least some MVP discussion. As great as Drew Brees [7] has played, the team went 15-17 over the last two years when he was around.
3.	Tom Brady	NE	25/37	332	1	1	145	142	3
One of the biggest differences between the 2007 Patriots and this year's version is that the 2007 team had a host of ancillary receiving options behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker, including Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney. This year, it's Sam Aiken and Brandon Tate -- not exactly the same caliber. Including Ben Watson, Kevin Faulk, and the law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brady threw 18 passes to non-Moss/Welker players on Sunday. He completed ten of them and picked up two DPI's on throws to Aiken, for a total of 131 yards. If he can do that every week, the Patriots will be fine. One other note on those 18 passes: Only one of them was thrown on third down. Moss and Welker got eight of Brady's nine third-down attempts.
4.	Matt Schaub	HOU	32/41	311	1	2	132	138	-6
Schaub fell short in his bid to conquer Indy, but consider this fourth quarter, all of which came with the Texans either up four or down three points: 14-of-16, 113 yards, and five first downs. Only an interception on a play in which Schaub was hit sullied his performance in the final stanza.
5.	Jay Cutler	CHI	29/47	369	3	1	130	122	8
When Cutler gets time to throw, he looks great -- On "deep" passes (15+ yards), he was 4-of-8 for 115 yards and two touchdowns (with a pick). It's just, well, he doesn't get time to throw.
6.	Tony Romo	DAL	21/34	307	1	1	113	113	0
Historically, Romo's been a terrible first-quarter performer, but he was excellent against Philly in the opening 15 minutes of Sunday night's game. 8-of-13 for 94 yards may not sound like a whole lot, but it's better than his usual performance. His best play of the game, though, was on the touchdown pass to Miles Austin that gave the Cowboys their margin of victory. A sly pump fake gave Austin the space he needed to get open on the back end of his double move, and his subsequent pass, on the biggest play of the game, was right where it needed to be. He was also victimized by a handful of drops, most notably by Martellus Bennett.
7.	David Garrard	JAC	18/27	264	1	0	110	94	16
One of the other factors that dramatically impact how a quarterback can look from week-to-week, naturally, is the quality of the opposition he's facing. Last week, Garrard was up against a Tennessee pass defense that had looked terrible, but showed some significant improvements implemented during the bye (and then exhibited against the 49ers this week). Garrard's biggest play of the day, a 61-yard touchdown pass to Mike Sims-Walker, came because Kansas City simply forgot to cover the Jaguars' top receiver on the play. TMQ loves making note of Christmas chatter starting too early; this was a flat-out gift, given at the beginning of November.
8.	Chad Henne	MIA	19/34	219	0	0	101	101	0
As FO's Aaron Schatz noted high up in the Gillette Stadium press box, Henne definitely has some accuracy issues, even on short-to-intermediate range throws. The Wildcat flashed once on Sunday, when struggling rookie Pat White ran for 33 yards, but it's been mostly held in check over the past few weeks. The Dolphins will need to throw the ball more with Ronnie Brown (as they did to score a one-yard touchdown on Sunday) in order to keep the safeties honest, or they'll need Henne to do enough in a conventional offense to make the Wildcat a luxury as opposed to a necessity.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
9.	Josh Freeman	TB	14/30	205	3	1	97	91	6
What else could you ask for in a rookie's first NFL start? Sure, a few bounces went his way, and he looked uneven at times. He showed off good arm strength, and had great touch on passes heading towards the sideline, including the game-winning touchdown pass to Sammie Stroughter. He'll look even better when Antonio Bryant's in the lineup.
10.	Drew Brees	NO	24/35	330	1	1	90	87	3
The Saints really do benefit from having a balanced offensive scheme, although pointing to Pierre Thomas' yards accrued in the fourth quarter is a fallacy, since that's a statistical signature of being ahead and not a skill. Brees only threw the ball 12 times in the second half, but he completed his first nine passes in that stretch, gathering 190 yards, five first downs and a touchdown. His 24 passes in the first half were only good for 140 yards and five first downs.
11.	Philip Rivers	SD	24/36	209	3	2	90	82	8
Rivers get the not-actually-a-prize prize for longest pass interference penalty of the week, a 29-yard attempt to Vincent Jackson [8] that gave the Chargers the ball at the 1. Even their goal line offense managed to get it in the end zone from there.
MNF.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	21/29	233	3	1	88	88	0
12.	Vince Young	TEN	12/19	172	0	0	86	76	10
We're beginning to see how teams are going to struggle with Young and Chris Johnson [9] in the lineup. Because Young is such a threat to run, teams have to use a linebacker as a "spy" against Young on passing play, making it that player's job to neutralize Young if he decides to take off. That linebacker can't blitz at the snap, which helps keep pressure off Young; furthermore, he can't go out and cover Johnson in the flat. Most teams don't have two fleet linebackers that can cover athletes the caliber of Young and Johnson, so one of them (usually Young) is likely to end up with a mismatch in the open field. If the team chooses to use a safety on Johnson, then there's one less defender back deep in case Young actually decides to launch a pass to Nate Washington.
13.	Peyton Manning	IND	34/50	318	1	1	58	62	-4
Indy ran a very strange scheme against the Texans. As Manning was throwing 25 passes in the first quarter, their passing game consisted almost entirely of short passes to Dallas Clark against a linebacker and a mix of quick screens and hitches to Joseph Addai. It requires some film study, but that sort of offense screams that there was two-deep coverage to prevent against big plays. Of course, Manning just destroyed the Titans with short gain after short gain, but it will be interesting to see if other teams take the same approach.
14.	Eli Manning	NYG	25/33	215	2	0	54	54	0
Manning's never had elite pass protection behind center, but five sacks against a Chargers pass rush that's constructed a house in 2007 isn't a good sign. In a way, it's good news that there wasn't one obvious factor that dictated the sacks; the first one came on a pocket that broke down, one came when no one got open downfield and Shaun Philips broke away from his man, one was when Manning didn't identify a rusher, and the final one was on a Hail Mary attempt; that's preferable to, say, our left tackle gave up three sacks and can't block anyone.
15.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	17/29	201	0	0	44	58	-14
16.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	39/51	329	1	1	43	45	-2
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
17.	Jason Campbell	WAS	15/22	196	1	1	-14	-23	9
If you actually look at Campbell's seasonal numbers, you wouldn't know that he's perceived to be a problem. His completion percentage (66.2 percent) and yards per attempt (7.4) are both career highs and rank in the top half of the league. Beyond the interception rate issue we mentioned in the introduction, the biggest change in Campbell has been his sack rate, which was at 3.3 percent as a rookie and has risen steadily up to 11.0 percent this season. The numbers suggest Jason Campbell [4]'s a fairly good quarterback stuck behind a very bad line. It will take a new team to figure out whether he has David Carr disease.
18.	Matt Ryan	ATL	18/23	135	1	1	-19	-28	9
He'll take the win, but something's up with Ryan. He has eight picks in his last four games, and his interception today wasn't the sort of good decision he's become associated with; it was a crossing pattern that Ryan threw into triple coverage. The rest of his day was low-risk, low-reward stuff against an average pass defense.
19.	Joe Flacco	BAL	18/32	195	0	2	-32	-25	-7
Flacco lives and dies by the deep ball, and at the moment, he's gasping for air. Notably, one of Flacco's interceptions was an ugly throw down the sideline towards Derrick Mason [10] that Leon Hall picked off. Flacco also gave Hall a pick earlier in the game on an awful quick slant, but Mason broke up the play on "offense" to save this quarterback.
20.	Matt Cassel	KC	23/39	262	2	0	-32	-27	-5
It was a pretty poor performance against the league's worst pass defense until he picked up two late scores on throws to the newly-acquired Chris Chambers. It's pretty clear that he has no confidence in his offensive line and is struggling with the pressure he's getting; he's quickly becoming the king of the three-yard scramble or the four-yard checkdown on third-and-long. Of course, if your wide receivers don't have enough time to get open before your quarterback tucks and runs for his life, you don't have much of an offense.
21.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	16/30	227	1	2	-34	-26	-7
Donovan McNabb [11]'s performance was a lot like the one he put on the last time he was underneath the lights, against the Redskins in Week 7 on Monday Night Football. Sure, Jeremy Maclin ran an awful route before McNabb's second pick, and LeSean McCoy dropped a screen pass that could've gone for big yardage. That hurts, but so does McNabb missing a wide-open DeSean Jackson a couple of times, or the usual strange mix of sails and two-hoppers that other elite quarterbacks just don't do as frequently as McNabb does. The whole game might have come down to a fingertip tackle made by Cowboys rookie Victor Butler as McNabb was scrambling away from a seven-man Cowboys blitz; had McNabb managed to stay on his feet, he would've had a first down and more instead of a sack on third-and-long from the Cowboys 33, Philly wouldn't have kicked a totally irrelevant field goal, and the game might have been totally different. The NFC East race could come down this year to that very shoestring tackle.
22.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	17/35	266	2	3	-52	-70	18
The announcers of the Packers-Buccaneers tilt noted that the Buccaneers defensive line was really showing off its might on Sunday. Tampa had six sacks, sure, but they had ten sacks before the Packers came to town, and Green Bay had allowed a league-high 31. Which of the two do you think had more to do with those six sacks on Sunday? If you need a hint, consider that the Packers were rotating offensive linemen in and out of the game, series-by-series, because the ones they were relying upon were too out of shape or injured to play for significant stretches of time. The Pack heads to Dallas next week; DeMarcus Ware has already announced that he'll be submitting the game tape for your consideration.
MNF.	Kyle Orton	DEN	23/38	221	0	3	-84	-84	0
23.	Matthew Stafford	DET	22/40	203	2	5	-113	-113	0
There's a huge difference between borderline Hall of Famer Kurt Warner [1] and struggling rookie Matthew Stafford [12] throwing five picks in a game. With that in mind, it's less that Stafford threw five picks and more what we saw in those picks that raised some concerns. The fifth and final interception appeared to be a route miscommunication, since there were two receivers cutting away from the pass. Interceptions one and two were virtually the same, throws where Stafford didn't step into his pass and made an inaccurate throw despite little pressure. Pick one was by an underneath zone defender Stafford either didn't see or thought he could get it past, while pick two was badly underthrown into bracketed double coverage. Picks three and four were perhaps even more concerning. Pick three saw Stafford fail to properly set himself when scrambling and attempt to throw a pass with an impossibly tight window in-between three defenders. Stafford threw a handful of picks in college the same way. Finally, pick four came on the play that was supposed to be Stafford's bread and butter: The long pass down the sidelines, showing off his arm strength and his touch on deeper routes. Stafford threw a ball that needed to be on his receiver's front shoulder -- meaning that only the receiver would be able to catch the ball -- on his receiver's back foot, and Marcus Trufant was able to react and pick the pass off. There will be days like this.
24.	Alex Smith	SF	29/45	286	2	3	-113	-116	3
And after six quarters of being the 49ers' savior at quarterback for what must easily be the fourth or fifth time in his career, Alex Smith [13] looked every bit to be the same player the 49ers had seen in camp and on the field since his arrival in the league. He didn't exhibit a noticeable split in the shotgun as opposed to under center this week, but he certainly looks more comfortable scanning the field when he's in the shogun to us.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Frank Gore	SF	83	1	75	0	83	47	36
Gore was Smith's best receiver on Sunday, taking advantage of an infirm Keith Bulluck to get out to the sidelines and pick up nice amounts of yardage out of the backfield. The fact that he got four targets inside the red zone, though, isn't a good sign for the 49ers offense; it means that no one was getting open downfield, or that the offensive line wasn't giving those receivers enough time to get open.
2.	Michael Turner	ATL	166	2	14	0	74	70	3
The Redskins have exhibited an excellent run defense this year, but they sure didn't look like it on Sunday. LaRon Landry took the cake with a dismal performance on Turner's two touchdown runs (and that doesn't even include his cheap shot at Matt Ryan [14] that led to a brawl). The first one was a more subtle mistake, an awful route to the ballcarrier that gave Turner an easy path on his sweep and allowed him to score virtually untouched from 30 yards out. The second one was worse, as Landry lined up Turner for a tackle and then decided to dive with his helmet at Turner's feet like he was a running back attempting to cut block a pass rusher. It failed miserably, and when DeAngelo Hall followed with a DeAngelo Hall-esque tackle, Turner was gone for his second long touchdown of the day. Neither run should have happened.
3.	Chris Johnson	TEN	135	2	25	0	65	58	7
It's very interesting to see that the Titans went to Chris Johnson [9] for two touchdowns close to the goal line and not LenDale White, who was stuffed from the two-yard line and only had four carries all day. It's enough to drive a man to ... oh, wait, never mind.
4.	Ray Rice	BAL	48	1	87	0	56	24	32
Rice is almost unquestionably the Ravens' best offensive player at this point, capable of manufacturing positive yardage when no one gets open or Joe Flacco [15] is being pressured. He caught all eight of the passes thrown to him, and each of his final four runs went for a first down or a touchdown.
MNF.	Rashard Mendenhall	PIT	155	0	9	0	50	48	2
5.	Ladell Betts	WAS	70	1	23	0	42	28	15
Betts isn't the pass blocker that Clinton Portis is, but he's an acceptable enough runner and receiver if Portis is forced to miss time thanks to a concussion suffered on Sunday. If it leads to Rock Cartwright as a goal line runner, though, that could become a problem; Cartwright was 0-for-3 inside the five on Sunday, despite getting two cracks from the one-yard line and another one from the three-yard line. Gotta do better than that.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Ryan Moats	HOU	38	0	15	1	-22	-21	-1
We said last year that fumbling on the opposition's one-yard line is the most damaging thing you can do to your team as a player. We were wrong -- punching someone is more damaging, Tommie Harris. Moats fumbled on the Colts' two-yard line, and while the placement of the ball at the 20-yard line as opposed to inside the two may have been incorrect, Moats' fumble was a reminder that scapegoating Steve Slaton for a bad stretch and giving Moats the job because of his performance against a weak run defense isn't a good plan, just an easy one.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	9	14	123	13.7	2	57
About the only downside to Fitzgerald's day is that he was the target on Matt Leinart [2]'s lone pass, an interception. Strange quirk: All four of Fitzgerald's incompletions from Warner came inside his own 20-yard line. Once he got past there, he caught everything that was thrown to him, including two touchdowns on his two targets inside the Chicago red zone.
2.	Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	6	8	147	24.5	1	57
Yes, being uncovered helps, but Sims-Walker is showing an ability to make plays after the catch and serve as the deeper target across from the possession routes of Torry Holt. He only had one completion that didn't go for either a first down or a touchdown.
MNF.	Santonio Holmes	PIT	6	6	93	15.5	0	57
3.	Jason Hill	SF	4	4	50	12.5	2	51
He wasn't buying in bulk, but it's hard to do more with the four passes thrown to you than what Hill did: Two touchdowns, a five-yard completion on third-and-four, and a thirty-yard pickup on a play where he juked two Titans defenders out of their boots on the sideline. Good day for your fourth receiver.
4.	Vincent Jackson	SD	5	6	58	11.6	2	47
Jackson didn't have C.C. Brown to pick on, so he just went after Corey Webster instead. The Giants' corner has been in a serious slump the past few weeks after looking fantastic to start the year (of course, you could say that about the other 52 guys on the roster), and Jackson really took advantage of Webster's fear that Jackson would go deep on him. The result was a steady stream of comeback and out patterns, including the one run by Jackson for the game-winning touchdown.
5.	Greg Camarillo	MIA	5	7	71	14.2	0	46
Throw in a pass interference penalty drawn by Camarillo, and it's six first downs on eight targets. It wasn't a big game -- you won't find Camarillo's name in the game recap -- but he did exactly what you need somebody on your team to do, pick up first downs and keep drives alive.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Derrick Mason	BAL	3	13	31	10.3	0	-47
We've hyped the New York combination of Webster and Darrelle Revis a lot in this space this year, but we also need to highly recommend Leon Hall, who's really emerged this year as a shutdown corner. He's quickly becoming a cornerback that both quarterbacks and fantasy owners dread seeing on the schedule, and while Johnathan Joseph looked good across from him, Hall's the better player. He spent most of his day on Mason, and you can see what the result was.

(Reminder: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.)