Week 3 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

"The game isn't played on paper."

"Stats don't tell the whole story."

"Stats can't measure [heart, grit, determination, or any other emotion that's only applied as a justification to rate the ability of skill position players in the NFL]."

The above statements, used to discredit the usage of statistics in sports are true. They don't serve their purpose, since no one develops a statistic that purports to measure heart or to provide the best way to play a game on paper, but they often stand up as the breezy counterarguments to factually-sound positions.

The problem, though, is that the alternative is even murkier. The adjectives journalists and fans use to describe players and teams that are supposed to transcend statistics are as fleeting and context-sensitive as the worst statistic.

Take last year's Cardinals, for example, a team that made it to the Super Bowl despite middling regular season numbers against a weak schedule. The Cardinals, like every other underdog Super Bowl team, were one of destiny, a perpetual second-division unit that had finally melded together into a great team because nobody believed in them. They were backed by a set of fans that had fallen in love with an organization that was finally first-class.

Fast-forward eight months later, and the Cardinals are sleepwalking through an embarrassing loss to the Colts to fall to 1-2. At least they didn't need a blackout extension to sell out the stadium this week.

It doesn't take long to change. The Dolphins have gone from being the league's model rebuild to a huge question mark with an 0-3 start, while the Bengals have gone from "Hard Knocks" laughingstock to a tipped pass away from 3-0. Denver's followed a similar path, but used that tipped pass to actually go 3-0.

The labels are even worse on players, too. Shaun Hill [2]'s been anointed as a "winner" because he fashioned a 7-3 record in 2007 and 2008 by playing against a mix of NFC West opponents and teams with nothing to play for. He put on the best performance of his young career on Sunday, but didn't get the win because his defense couldn't hold up in the final few seconds. He contributed more to the team than he did, arguably, in any of those games that he "won", but won't get the credit for it. Tom Brady [3] is the source of almost cataclysmic doubt in New England; Kevin Kolb [4] is a future franchise quarterback in Philly a week after either Jeff Garcia [5] or Michael Vick [6] were sure to take over his job. Adjectives can be fickle.

It's unfair to slap players or teams with these labels; the range in an individual player or team's performance from game-to-game, let alone season-to-season, is so dramatic as to render those labels wholly irrelevant. Is Eli Manning [7] clutch because of his Super Bowl run, or is he a choke artist because he's 0-3 outside of 2007? Is Kolb really a star in the making, or has he benefited from two games against the porous secondaries against Kansas City and New Orleans?

With that in mind, the best way to analyze a player or a team is to look at them over the long haul, after accounting for as much of the context and variance as you can. The more you observe, the more you know.

Which brings us back to statistics, and why we're using them to break down the game in the first place. The measures of performance used by Football Outsiders are far from perfect, but they outclass fleeting adjectives and simply, pithy narratives. So, if your initial reaction to what you read below is one of the replies in the first paragraph, well, hold on to your adjectives. They've clearly got a hold on you.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Peyton Manning	IND	24/35	394	4	1	205	222	-18
The Cardinals were unable to sack Manning on even one of his 35 dropbacks. Normally, that points to a team dropping seven or eight into coverage while attempting to limit Manning's big plays and forcing him into a rare misread, but the Cardinals weren't doing that either. Peyton audibly identified multiple Cardinals blitzes because the would-be rushers showed their hand too early, and had no qualms about throwing right into the spaces they left. Many of the Colts' catches came with acres of space around them thanks to failed blitzes and missed assignments in the secondary. Teams shouldn't give first-ballot Hall of Famers this much help.
2.	Kevin Kolb	PHI	24/34	327	2	0	189	183	6
In his first two starts as a pro, Kolb threw for 718 yards. That's astounding. Our game-by-game database for quarterbacks goes back through 1987, and the only player above even 600 yards is Vinny Testaverde, who threw for 631 yards in his first two starts in '87. Of course, Kolb's had 85 attempts to accrue that yardage. He's averaged 8.45 yards per attempt in those first two games; that's seventh across that timeframe, and the six quarterbacks ahead of him are a mix of stars (Daunte Culpepper, Brett Favre [8], Kurt Warner [9]) and scrubs (Byron Leftwich, Jamie Martin, Todd Bouman). The jury's still out on which group Kolb's in, but we might not learn much more until next season. Donovan McNabb will be back as the starter after the Eagles' upcoming bye, and with the need to play Michael Vick [6] as the team's second quarterback, Kolb will be an emergency QB.
3.	Joe Flacco	BAL	25/35	342	1	0	188	187	1
It's not necessarily the big-play stuff anymore for Flacco; he's becoming a much better intermediate passer, and the Ravens really are opening up the offense for him. Flacco only dropped back six times on third down, as opposed to 18 times on first down. There, he was 13-of-18 for 222 yards, eight new first downs, and his lone touchdown pass.
4.	Matt Schaub	HOU	26/35	300	3	1	149	152	-3
Jacksonville's pass defense has looked awful over the first few weeks of the season, and while some of that can be chalked up to playing Peyton Manning [10] and Kurt Warner [9], they helped make Schaub look great this week. (Opponent adjustments aren't yet factored into our weekly statistics, because it's too early in the year to form a meaningful sample.) Like Flacco, it was a first-down thing; Schaub completed six straight passes on first down at one point, including four straight for 15 yards or more.
5.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	13/23	269	2	0	149	128	21
A streaky day for Rodgers started off with two completions, followed by four consecutive plays ending in either a sack or an incompletion. He completed his next six attempts, including four straight first downs and a touchdown. That was answered by six straight incompletions, which was succeeded by three consecutive completions, two incompletions, and two more completions in the fourth quarter to end Rodgers' day. In the long run, you can just look at a day that had pass plays of 46, 50, and 53 yards and say that it was a good one.
6.	Tom Brady	NE	25/42	277	1	0	144	141	3
He's not all the way back, but there were signs of progress from Brady on Sunday despite playing in the driving rain. His deep ball still isn't back yet, but he was more accurate underneath than he was a week ago; it would have helped him to have Wes Welker or a functional Joey Galloway underneath, but Brady had neither. Somehow, his longest completion of the day in the air -- 30 yards -- went to tight end Chris Baker, which isn't exactly how the Patriots offense was supposed to be drawn up.
7.	Matt Stafford	DET	21/34	241	1	0	142	135	6
Stafford finished 33rd and 34th in the first two weeks of this year's Quick Reads, so a sudden rise to seventh was both unexpected and remarkable. What happened? Stafford had a great game on third downs. Including a 47-yard pass interference penalty, Stafford was 11-of-12 on third down for 168 yards and eight first downs; in the Lions' first two games, he was 10-of-20 for 148 yards and six first downs. That seems awfully fluky to us, but Lions fans won't care for now.
8.	David Garrard	JAC	18/30	214	0	0	127	105	22
The passing numbers look pedestrian, but he did everything he needed to do. He dropped back twice in the red zone and picked up 13-yard completions and first downs each time, and he converted five of the eight third downs he was faced with. Then, add in a 30-yard scramble and a two-yard touchdown run for those 22 rushing DYAR.
9.	Philip Rivers	SD	18/33	303	0	0	118	105	13
At what point does Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson Jackson get recognition as one of the league's top combinations? Defensive backs wake up in cold sweats after they watch Jackson's post patterns on film in midweek. Normally, the sort of deep route receiver that Jackson represents is very boom-or-bust, but Rivers threw nine passes to Jackson and picked up six first downs. He only got 10 first downs on the other 26 passes.
10.	Eli Manning	NYG	14/24	161	2	0	114	110	5
Eli could've had a better game -- there were the sort of accuracy issues and inconsistency that have plagued Manning throughout his career -- but he got enough right to avoid any concerns that the game might become a contest. On the bright side, he used all the time he had in the pocket to film another watch commercial.
11.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	22/31	276	1	1	105	97	8
Talk about games that invert reputations. Roethlisberger was consistently effective, completing 71 percent of his passes while avoiding sacks. Where he failed was on the two key plays that changed the game: The miscommunication with Santonio Holmes on a pass he shouldn't have thrown that led to a pick-six, and the sack he took on the Steelers' penultimate drive that gave the Bengals the ball back with five minutes to go.
12.	Jason Campbell	WAS	27/40	340	2	1	97	88	9
If Jim Zorn ends up sacrificing Campbell to save his own job, well, it'll be blaming the wrong person. One thing Zorn might want to do if he wants to hold onto that job is give Campbell more time in the no huddle; Campbell was 7-of-7 for 54 yards employing it against the Lions, improving him to 11-of-12 for 91 yards with six first downs and two scores out of the no-huddle this year. He's only 58-of-90 outside of it.
13.	Carson Palmer	CIN	20/35	183	1	0	94	93	1
Those two fourth down conversions to Laveranues Coles and Brian Leonard were enormous, but Palmer was dismal on third down, going 4-of-11 while gaining only 33 yards and two first downs.
14.	Kyle Orton	DEN	13/23	157	1	0	88	88	0
Denver's game plan was simple: Avoid Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson on the edges, line up Brandon Marshall, Jabar Gaffney, and Eddie Royal in the slot, and let them beat nickel corners and linebackers on crossing routes. It turns out Kirk Morrison can't cover wide receivers. Who knew?
MNF.	Tony Romo	DAL	22/32	250	0	0	87	87	0
15.	Matt Ryan	ATL	17/28	199	0	0	82	82	0
Ryan's homecoming to the Boston area was met with typical weather and a welcoming party from the Patriots: No pass rush. Michael Turner even did a good job on first down, but Ryan failed to convert on three diferent third-and-3's and one third-and-4. Those are drives that need to be kept alive.
16.	Brett Favre	MIN	24/43	301	2	1	53	57	-4
It's amazing what one pass can do, huh? It's reflexive to want to deflect praise away from Favre, who's received enough for several lifetimes (and dramatic comebacks), but the throw to Greg Lewis had to be perfect. Favre put it exactly where Lewis and only Lewis could get to it; it required a great catch, but a great throw put it there.
17.	Shaun Hill	SF	16/25	195	2	1	26	26	0
It would be unfair to say that he failed to convert a single third down; sure, failing on third-and-1 is weak, but Hill faced an average of nearly 13 yards to go on his other seven third down opportunities.
18.	Josh Johnson	TB	4/10	36	0	0	23	16	7
The Giants rush defense has looked awful all season, but the Buccaneers only attempted to run the ball seven times all game. None of those carries came on the Buccaneers' goal-to-go series from the five, meaning that Johnson got four chances to try and toss the ball into the end zone in his first NFL action. It was, shall we say, a suboptimal decision.
19.	Kyle Boller	STL	16/31	164	2	1	23	8	15
Boller wasn't great, but he was about as good as Marc Bulger's been recently despite his lack of reps with the first-team offense and the huge discrepancy in the two players' salaries. Then again, most of Bulger's DYAR came on two scrambles. St. Louis, by the way, is now 5-30 over the past three years. Their wins include a legit nine-point win versus the Saints, four-point victory over the Trent Dilfer-led 49ers, a defeat of the Falcons while Bobby Petrino was negotiating to head to Arkansas, a two-point win over the Redskins at the death, and a win over the Cowboys when Tony Romo [11] had a broken finger and Brad Johnson was at quarterback. Now that the Lions have broken their winless streak, the focus is going to fall on the Rams as the NFC's worst franchise.
20.	Jay Cutler	CHI	21/27	247	3	1	22	22	0
One of the places our stats can't separate the player from the context is with regards to the relationship between a quarterback and his offensive line. In the case of Cutler, that played a huge role on Sunday: The revamped offensive line in front of him was just atrocious. The Seahawks didn't need to blitz, although they did with some effectiveness; it looked so bad at times that we wondered whether the offensive linemen thought the call was for a screen pass and were deliberately letting rushers through. St. Louis may be an awful franchise, but they made the right move in letting Orlando Pace -- or the statue of Orlando Pace that's currently playing left tackle for the Bears -- go this offseason.
21.	Drew Brees	NO	16/29	172	0	0	4	-4	7
Even the best quarterbacks just don't throw four touchdowns a game every week, so it was pretty clear this sort of game was inevitable. The Bills got pressure with their front four, eventually forcing left tackle Jermon Bushrod out of the game with an injury. That led to a period of consternation for Brees, who started the game by picking up five first downs on his first six attempts, but was only 11-of-23 for 82 yards and three first downs afterwards.
22.	Chad Pennington	MIA	8/12	54	0	0	-16	1	-17
The misguided scapegoating of Pennington for Miami's slow start was absurd on the surface -- look at how many passes his receivers have dropped while you're trying to figure out how he's supposed to be covering tight ends -- but it'll look even worse now that he's expected to miss time with a shoulder injury. It was naive to think that Pennington would make it through a full season unscathed for the second year in a row, but he's one of the team's best players when he's healthy. It might take Pennington's absence to get Dolphins fans to notice.
23.	Matt Cassel	KC	14/18	90	2	0	-16	-9	-7
Cassel was playing like a quarterback scared on Sunday. Pocket presence has never been his forte, and against the Eagles' exotic blitzes, Cassel was simply overwhelmed. After his second-quarter touchdown pass to Mark Bradley, Cassel failed to complete a pass of longer than nine yards. That's a quarterback who's constantly checking down and failing to get his receivers into longer patterns. It's not necessarily Cassel's fault; truthfully, we were scared watching him.
24.	Seneca Wallace	SEA	26/44	261	1	1	-21	-21	0
Wallace looks exactly like what he is: A player who didn't get the reps he needed to develop. Wallace is a talented athlete with a good arm, but he makes the mistakes that quarterbacks without pro experience make. He forces throws into tight spaces, and when he's pressured, he tries to make the hero throw instead of throwing a pass away or taking a sack. The fact that he had one interception instead of two or three is a miracle, not a testament to his performance.
25.	Kurt Warner	ARI	30/52	332	1	2	-29	-29	0
Rarely will you see a quarterback as out-of-touch with his receivers as Warner looked Sunday night. There were at least a half-dozen passes where there was clear miscommunication in which route was to be run, and while that could be a wide receiver's mistake, it's the quarterback's job to make sure everyone does what they're supposed to on the field. Warner normally does a good job of it, which is why it's so concerning that the offense looked so bad.
MNF.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	22/33	220	1	2	-33	-38	5
26.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	16/30	125	2	1	-47	-62	15
What happened to the Jets' offense? Well, Sanchez converted his first two third downs...and then failed on the final nine chances he got.
27.	Chad Henne	MIA	10/19	92	0	1	-49	-44	-4
28.	Brady Quinn	CLE	6/8	34	0	1	-68	-66	-2
Yeah, apparently 6-of-8 for 34 yards against the Ravens' defense wasn't good enough for Eric Mangini. So the Browns had to bring in the guy three spots down.
29.	Kerry Collins	TEN	15/37	170	1	2	-71	-70	-1
30.	Byron Leftwich	TB	7/16	22	0	1	-88	-89	1
22 yards on 16 attempts is a robust 1.4 yards per attempt, the third-fewest of any quarterback with 15 or more attempts in a game since 1986. Joey Harrington was 5-of-17 for 20 yards (1.2 YPA) against the Bills in a 2006 game, while Bruce Gradkowski paces the field with a 5-of-16 performance for 18 yards (1.1 YPA) against the Steelers in Week 17 last season.
31.	Derek Anderson	CLE	11/19	92	0	3	-94	-94	0
The Browns' biggest offensive play of the day was a 25-yard pass interference penalty on a pass from Anderson to Joshua Cribbs. We're about at the point of suggesting that the Browns should just go deep and try to draw pass interference penalties on every play. Forget the Wildcat; let's go All-Hail Mary and see what happens, right?
32.	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	12/21	61	0	2	-120	-131	10
Think about this. JaMarcus Russell [12] had a worse day than the guy who threw for 1.4 yards per attempt. In a way, he topped Leftwich: Russell was 3-of-8 in the second half, but had more sacks (two) than passing yards (one). That's not a number including sack yardage like college, either; he completed a pass for five yards, a pass for -4 yards, and then one for no gain. But remember: He can throw the ball really far.
33.	Trent Edwards	BUF	21/35	156	0	1	-124	-127	3
Trent Edwards [13] was worse than Byron Leftwich [14] or JaMarcus Russell [12]. Both were worse if we focus strictly on passing and look at it on a per-play basis, but Edwards takes the cake by throwing 35 attempts of misery as opposed to Russell and Leftwich's combined total of 37.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Pierre Thomas	NO	126	2	0	0	57	57	0
Once the Saints adapted to the Bills' scheme and realized there was space to be had up the middle, it was time for Thomas to get his revenge for missing the first two games with a knee injury. Even though he'll never get hyped as the team's big-play back, Thomas had five carries of 13 yards or more; the more expensive guy in the backfield had two.
2.	Ricky Williams	MIA	55	1	29	0	53	42	11
A very concise day on the ground -- only eight attempts, but six of them were for five yards or more, three of them went for first downs, and one was a 14-yard touchdown.
MNF.	Felix Jones	DAL	94	0	20	0	46	34	11
3.	Steve Slaton	HOU	76	0	37	0	41	24	18
It isn't quite the big numbers that fantasy owners were hoping for, but it was exactly the sort of consistent success that we've found winning football teams pick up. Slaton had four carries of 11 yards or more, and not a single attempt for no gain or negative yardage. He was also 3-of-3 for 37 yards and two first downs as a receiver.
4.	Kevin Smith	DET	101	0	18	0	41	32	9
He had to enjoy the end of his professional losing streak on the sidelines with a shoulder injury, but Smith contributed plenty to secure a victory before he left. He only picked up two first downs, but his 50 percent success rate put Matt Stafford in manageable situations (which Stafford then converted).
5.	Ronnie Brown	MIA	75	0	40	0	38	18	20
You think the Chargers miss Jamal Williams much? Having two runners against them in the top five might be a sign.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Glen Coffee	SF	54	0	0	0	-47	-41	-6
Coffee was stuffed on third-and-1 and third-and-2, and gained four yards or more on only four of his 14 first down chances.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Kevin Walter	HOU	7	7	96	13.7	1	70
Jacksonville clearly decided before the game that they were going to cover Andre Johnson with whatever they had on each play, and let the Texans' secondary receivers beat them. Walter, Slaton, and Owen Daniels almost did.
2.	Reggie Wayne	IND	7	9	126	18.0	1	61
If most teams lost their clear number two receiver and were starting an undrafted free agent at one wideout spot, their star wideout woul struggle to get open because of all the double- and triple-teams he'd face. Fortunately for Wayne, the Colts aren't most teams. It was astounding how open he was at times Sunday night.
3.	Santana Moss	WAS	10	14	185	18.5	1	58
Moss would look better if there was anyone developing across from him, but the combined numbers of Antwaan Randle El, Malcolm Kelly, and Devin Thomas weren't pretty, at 4-of-10 for 48 yards. If only he could play for the Colts, too...
4.	Steve Smith	NYG	7	7	63	9.0	1	46
Smith isn't a traditional number one receiver -- certainly, not in the sense that Plaxico Burress was when he was on the team -- but he's the Giants' primary target when they need a first down. It's no accident that five of those seven catches either moved the chains or picked up a touchdown.
5.	Donald Driver	GB	4	7	95	23.8	1	46
We don't give out bonus points for absolutely sick one-handed catches, and we'd probably owe Wayne a few for his performance if we did, but Driver deserves some for one of the catches of the year. If you haven't seen it, well, turn on ESPN and wait. You will soon enough.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Ted Ginn	MIA	0	6	0	0.0	0	-44
It would be one thing if Ginn was just heading deep and the Dolphins were failing to hit him on go routes, but it's not that. Pennington and Henne each threw him one deep pass, but the other incompletions were all 14 yards away from the line of scrimmage or less. For all the "progress" Ginn has made over the past year, it'll be interesting to see how much of the improvements he exhibited were merely a function of playing with Pennington.

(Reminder: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.)