by Aaron Schatz
Are you ready for 2000 all over again [1]? The nation planning for a new president, the New York Giants winning the NFC, Baltimore and Tennessee as the best teams in the AFC, a couple of the worst teams in NFL history playing in the same season... it's like everything old is new again. Well, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, anyway.
It isn't quite like 2000, because this time the Giants are far ahead of the Ravens and Titans instead of the reverse. The Giants are now dominating the league like some of the great teams of the last dozen years. They aren't quite at the level of the 2007 Patriots, but they are up there with the 1998 Broncos, 1999 Rams, and 2001 Rams. The Giants are one of only ten teams with DVOA over 40% through Week 12 of the season, but more important is the huge gap between the Giants and everyone else. If the season ended today, the Giants would have the second-largest lead in DVOA history. The difference between the Giants and second-place Ravens is roughly equal to the difference between the Ravens and the ninth-place Green Bay Packers.
| Top 10 Gaps Between Top 2 Teams in Total DVOA, 1995-2008 | |||||
| Year | Gap | #1 Team | #2 Team | ||
| 2007 | 18.9% | NE | 52.0% | IND | 33.1% |
| 2008* | 14.0% | NYG | 41.6% | BAL | 27.7% |
| 2001 | 13.0% | STL | 38.5% | PHI | 25.4% |
| 1996 | 11.2% | GB | 40.8% | SF | 29.6% |
| 1999 | 11.0% | STL | 45.8% | JAC | 34.8% |
| 1995 | 10.2% | SF | 41.0% | DAL | 30.7% |
| 2000 | 7.6% | TEN | 37.8% | BAL | 30.2% |
| 2002 | 3.3% | TB | 34.0% | OAK | 30.6% |
| 2005 | 3.0% | IND | 33.7% | DEN | 30.7% |
| 1998 | 2.8% | DEN | 29.7% | MIN | 27.0% |
Obviously, hindsight is 20-20, and you can't predict games using future information. However, now that we know that they were on their way to becoming the strongest team in the league, last year's Giants run through the playoffs makes a lot more sense. If we could put together a hypothetical game between this year's Giants and last year's Patriots, a Giants win would be a minor upset, but not a major one.
It was hard to expect this given the history of "surprise" Super Bowl teams in the year after. The 1980 Raiders followed up their surprise upset of the Eagles with a 7-9 season. The 1987 Redskins were just 8-4 during non-strike games, won the Super Bowl anyway, and then went 7-9 the next year. The 2006 Steelers went 8-8. The 2004 Panthers went 7-9. The 2002 Patriots were 9-7. All of these teams missed the playoffs. The few teams that were good the year after a "surprise" Super Bowl were generally teams where the Super Bowl appearance actually came during a down year amidst a string of good seasons -- the 1979 Rams, the 1988 49ers, the 2006 Colts. Although they had made the playoffs in 2006, I don't think the 2007 Giants quite fit in with these teams.
The most similar team might be the 1996-1997 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars snuck into the playoffs despite giving up more points than they allowed, then got hot and upset the Broncos in Denver. Sure, they didn't make it all the way to the Super Bowl, but that strong postseason run carried over into the next few seasons as the Jaguars won a string of AFC Central titles. Hey, who was the head coach of that Jacksonville team, anyway?
Returning to 2008, we can see down at the bottom of the league that the Rams are very, very bad. It turns out that I retired the "worst team ever" watch a bit too early. The Rams have gone below -100% DVOA in two of their last three games and are threatening the 2005 49ers for the title of "worst team in DVOA history." The Rams combine the worst offense of the year with one of the worst defenses of the decade. Oh, but no -- it isn't the worst defense of the decade, because that team is also playing right now: the Detroit Lions. Aren't we lucky to be witnessing one of the worst defenses in NFL history -- on national television, no less? Happy Thanksgiving!
| BEST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 12 |
WORST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 12 |
WORST DEFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 12 |
||||||||
| 2007 | NE | 71.3% | 2005 | SF | -56.7% | 2008 | DET | 31.4% | ||
| 1999 | STL | 50.0% | 2008 | STL | -53.2% | 2004 | STL | 29.9% | ||
| 1998 | DEN | 46.7% | 1999 | CLE | -50.9% | 2005 | HOU | 29.4% | ||
| 2001 | STL | 44.2% | 2004 | SF | -48.8% | 2002 | KC | 27.4% | ||
| 2004 | NE | 43.0% | 2000 | CIN | -48.0% | 2000 | ARI | 27.3% | ||
| 2002 | TB | 42.9% | 2008 | DET | -47.5% | 2008 | STL | 27.1% | ||
| 2008 | NYG | 41.6% | 1998 | PHI | -44.1% | 2004 | NO | 25.7% | ||
| 1995 | DAL | 41.1% | 2005 | HOU | -43.5% | 2004 | SF | 24.6% | ||
| 1995 | SF | 41.0% | 2007 | SF | -42.5% | 2000 | SF | 24.2% | ||
| 2004 | PIT | 40.2% | 2000 | ARI | -41.8% | 2000 | SEA | 23.8% | ||
As for Philadelphia, what can I tell you? At this point, I've written too many times about why their DVOA rating was good through Week 10, and the last two games have been bad, but not bad enough to drop them below fourth place. The offense looked lost on Sunday -- but it looked lost against the league's top defense according to our ratings. No, I don't really think the Eagles are the fourth-best team in the league, or even the sixth-best team in the league, which is what they are according to WEIGHTED DVOA. For now, we just have to live with it.
* * * * *
It is no surprise that the worst defense of the DVOA Era is playing in 2008, because the whole league has been awful on defense in 2008. Bill Barnwell already noted that Week 12 was the highest-scoring week in NFL history [2], but that doesn't quite do justice to the spectacular offensive environment that has existed for the entire 2008 season. As some of you know, the DVOA ratings use an offensive baseline developed using the 2002-2006 seasons. Some seasons have more offense than others, so the league average is actually slightly above or below 0% each season.
This year, however, it is hard to use the word "slightly." The league DVOA for the season through Week 12 is 4.4%. The years with the strongest offensive environments before this were 2004 and 2007 -- and the league DVOA in each of those years was just 1.1%.
The offensive improvement seems fairly spread across the league, rather than being concentrated on a couple of outstanding teams. The Giants, this year's best offense, would be 18th all-time through Week 12. There are 20 offenses and 21 defenses currently above 0%.
Standard stats also show 2008 to be the strongest offensive year in NFL history. There has never been a season where the average team scored more than 22 points per game, but right now the league average is 22.5 points per game. NFL quarterbacks are completing 61.9 percent of passes, which would break the record of 61.2 percent set last year -- which was itself the first season over 60 percent in NFL history. Quarterbacks are averaging 35.5 pass attempts per interception, which would break the record of 32.8 pass attempts per interception set in 1997.
* * * * *
Individual and team stats pages are up now, except for a couple where I'm having some HTML builder issues (offensive and defensive lines, the new defense vs. receivers table). I'll try to have the premium picks updated by the end of today, a little earlier than usual due to Thanksgiving games.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 12 weeks of 2008, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [3].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. These ratings also include opponent adjustments. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | NYG | 41.6% | 1 | 42.9% | 1 | 10-1 | 26.7% | 1 | -10.2% | 7 | 4.7% | 6 |
| 2 | BAL | 27.7% | 4 | 26.4% | 2 | 7-4 | 5.1% | 19 | -25.8% | 1 | -3.2% | 26 |
| 3 | TEN | 25.4% | 2 | 24.7% | 3 | 10-1 | 9.2% | 12 | -16.6% | 4 | -0.4% | 20 |
| 4 | PHI | 21.4% | 3 | 19.7% | 6 | 5-5-1 | 5.6% | 18 | -14.6% | 5 | 1.2% | 14 |
| 5 | PIT | 19.4% | 7 | 19.8% | 5 | 8-3 | -0.7% | 22 | -21.0% | 2 | -0.9% | 23 |
| 6 | ARI | 18.9% | 6 | 20.6% | 4 | 7-4 | 20.7% | 3 | -0.6% | 11 | -2.5% | 24 |
| 7 | TB | 18.2% | 8 | 16.8% | 7 | 8-3 | -0.1% | 21 | -17.6% | 3 | 0.7% | 16 |
| 8 | CAR | 15.6% | 9 | 16.1% | 8 | 8-3 | 8.4% | 13 | -7.2% | 8 | 0.1% | 18 |
| 9 | GB | 13.3% | 5 | 14.6% | 9 | 5-6 | 9.7% | 11 | -1.7% | 10 | 1.9% | 12 |
| 10 | NYJ | 12.9% | 12 | 14.3% | 10 | 8-3 | 8.3% | 14 | 0.1% | 12 | 4.7% | 5 |
| 11 | NO | 12.3% | 15 | 14.2% | 11 | 6-5 | 22.9% | 2 | 12.1% | 21 | 1.4% | 13 |
| 12 | IND | 10.8% | 10 | 13.0% | 12 | 7-4 | 18.0% | 7 | 6.7% | 17 | -0.5% | 21 |
| 13 | ATL | 10.7% | 13 | 11.6% | 13 | 7-4 | 20.6% | 4 | 13.1% | 23 | 3.2% | 7 |
| 14 | WAS | 8.2% | 11 | 5.1% | 14 | 7-4 | 12.6% | 9 | 0.5% | 13 | -4.0% | 27 |
| 15 | CHI | 6.1% | 16 | 4.1% | 15 | 6-5 | 2.9% | 20 | -3.4% | 9 | -0.2% | 19 |
| 16 | MIA | 4.1% | 14 | 3.0% | 16 | 6-5 | 18.8% | 5 | 6.0% | 15 | -8.8% | 31 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | SD | 2.2% | 19 | 0.4% | 18 | 4-7 | 17.1% | 8 | 17.0% | 27 | 2.0% | 11 |
| 18 | NE | -0.4% | 21 | 0.8% | 17 | 7-4 | 10.4% | 10 | 13.2% | 24 | 2.3% | 10 |
| 19 | MIN | -0.5% | 18 | -2.2% | 19 | 6-5 | -5.1% | 24 | -14.4% | 6 | -9.8% | 32 |
| 20 | DAL | -4.7% | 22 | -7.5% | 22 | 7-4 | 7.6% | 15 | 6.6% | 16 | -5.7% | 29 |
| 21 | DEN | -6.3% | 17 | -6.8% | 20 | 6-5 | 18.8% | 6 | 20.7% | 29 | -4.3% | 28 |
| 22 | JAC | -6.9% | 20 | -7.3% | 21 | 4-7 | 6.2% | 17 | 14.0% | 26 | 1.0% | 15 |
| 23 | BUF | -8.2% | 24 | -10.1% | 24 | 6-5 | -2.0% | 23 | 13.9% | 25 | 7.7% | 1 |
| 24 | HOU | -10.8% | 26 | -8.6% | 23 | 4-7 | 6.9% | 16 | 20.4% | 28 | 2.7% | 9 |
| 25 | CLE | -12.8% | 23 | -11.5% | 25 | 4-7 | -7.3% | 25 | 11.2% | 20 | 5.7% | 3 |
| 26 | SF | -15.0% | 25 | -16.4% | 26 | 3-8 | -14.2% | 28 | 7.1% | 18 | 6.3% | 2 |
| 27 | OAK | -18.5% | 29 | -18.7% | 27 | 3-8 | -20.3% | 31 | 3.3% | 14 | 5.1% | 4 |
| 28 | SEA | -21.1% | 27 | -20.4% | 28 | 2-9 | -11.4% | 27 | 12.5% | 22 | 2.8% | 8 |
| 29 | CIN | -28.1% | 28 | -27.2% | 29 | 1-9-1 | -16.1% | 29 | 9.1% | 19 | -2.9% | 25 |
| 30 | KC | -35.9% | 30 | -33.9% | 30 | 1-10 | -8.7% | 26 | 21.4% | 30 | -5.9% | 30 |
| 31 | DET | -47.5% | 31 | -46.0% | 31 | 0-11 | -16.7% | 30 | 31.4% | 32 | 0.5% | 17 |
| 32 | STL | -53.2% | 32 | -51.9% | 32 | 2-9 | -25.4% | 32 | 27.1% | 31 | -0.8% | 22 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NYG | 41.6% | 10-1 | 45.3% | 8.8 | 1 | -3.3% | 27 | 10.0% | 8 | 19.3% | 23 |
| 2 | BAL | 27.7% | 7-4 | 26.1% | 8.0 | 2 | 3.3% | 8 | -3.0% | 19 | 18.2% | 21 |
| 3 | TEN | 25.4% | 10-1 | 26.2% | 7.9 | 3 | -1.5% | 20 | -10.2% | 26 | 4.1% | 1 |
| 4 | PHI | 21.4% | 5-5-1 | 21.8% | 7.1 | 5 | -0.7% | 19 | 12.8% | 4 | 11.8% | 10 |
| 5 | PIT | 19.4% | 8-3 | 20.4% | 7.3 | 4 | 2.1% | 11 | 8.8% | 9 | 5.9% | 2 |
| 6 | ARI | 18.9% | 7-4 | 20.0% | 6.8 | 7 | -2.9% | 25 | -13.5% | 30 | 11.0% | 8 |
| 7 | TB | 18.2% | 8-3 | 23.3% | 6.7 | 10 | -4.8% | 29 | 5.6% | 11 | 17.1% | 18 |
| 8 | CAR | 15.6% | 8-3 | 15.1% | 6.7 | 9 | -2.0% | 21 | 19.8% | 2 | 18.4% | 22 |
| 9 | GB | 13.3% | 5-6 | 10.1% | 6.4 | 13 | 0.8% | 13 | -10.9% | 27 | 17.9% | 20 |
| 10 | NYJ | 12.9% | 8-3 | 18.7% | 6.5 | 12 | -7.8% | 31 | -11.6% | 28 | 19.5% | 24 |
| 11 | NO | 12.3% | 6-5 | 13.4% | 6.8 | 8 | -0.7% | 18 | 0.8% | 14 | 14.0% | 14 |
| 12 | IND | 10.8% | 7-4 | 7.3% | 6.9 | 6 | 5.4% | 2 | -17.5% | 31 | 20.0% | 25 |
| 13 | ATL | 10.7% | 7-4 | 10.7% | 6.0 | 16 | -0.5% | 17 | -5.3% | 21 | 26.0% | 31 |
| 14 | WAS | 8.2% | 7-4 | 9.2% | 6.1 | 14 | -2.5% | 22 | 11.9% | 6 | 8.0% | 6 |
| 15 | CHI | 6.1% | 6-5 | 6.9% | 6.5 | 11 | -2.8% | 24 | 1.9% | 13 | 8.4% | 7 |
| 16 | MIA | 4.1% | 6-5 | 12.4% | 5.6 | 17 | -0.3% | 16 | -24.9% | 32 | 17.1% | 17 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | SD | 2.2% | 4-7 | 1.2% | 6.0 | 15 | 0.5% | 14 | -7.9% | 24 | 15.5% | 16 |
| 18 | NE | -0.4% | 7-4 | 5.3% | 5.5 | 18 | -6.0% | 30 | -2.4% | 18 | 21.4% | 27 |
| 19 | MIN | -0.5% | 6-5 | -3.0% | 5.4 | 19 | 4.2% | 6 | 7.4% | 10 | 6.7% | 4 |
| 20 | DAL | -4.7% | 7-4 | -2.4% | 4.9 | 21 | 1.7% | 12 | 22.2% | 1 | 23.5% | 28 |
| 21 | DEN | -6.3% | 6-5 | -5.4% | 4.8 | 22 | -3.8% | 28 | -3.4% | 20 | 24.0% | 29 |
| 22 | JAC | -6.9% | 4-7 | -3.8% | 5.1 | 20 | -2.8% | 23 | 11.8% | 7 | 6.1% | 3 |
| 23 | BUF | -8.2% | 6-5 | 1.5% | 4.7 | 23 | -9.2% | 32 | -1.2% | 17 | 11.8% | 9 |
| 24 | HOU | -10.8% | 4-7 | -11.5% | 4.0 | 26 | 0.2% | 15 | 4.9% | 12 | 13.9% | 12 |
| 25 | CLE | -12.8% | 4-7 | -17.4% | 4.6 | 24 | 5.0% | 5 | 12.2% | 5 | 21.1% | 26 |
| 26 | SF | -15.0% | 3-8 | -14.7% | 4.3 | 25 | -2.9% | 26 | -9.1% | 25 | 7.7% | 5 |
| 27 | OAK | -18.5% | 3-8 | -21.2% | 3.8 | 27 | 2.4% | 10 | -6.7% | 23 | 33.1% | 32 |
| 28 | SEA | -21.1% | 2-9 | -21.9% | 3.7 | 28 | 2.9% | 9 | -6.6% | 22 | 14.4% | 15 |
| 29 | CIN | -28.1% | 1-9-1 | -38.5% | 2.8 | 29 | 11.1% | 1 | -0.5% | 15 | 13.9% | 13 |
| 30 | KC | -35.9% | 1-10 | -35.0% | 2.6 | 30 | 5.3% | 3 | -11.6% | 29 | 17.3% | 19 |
| 31 | DET | -47.5% | 0-11 | -46.6% | 2.0 | 31 | 3.8% | 7 | 15.3% | 3 | 13.7% | 11 |
| 32 | STL | -53.2% | 2-9 | -54.5% | 1.1 | 32 | 5.0% | 4 | -0.6% | 16 | 24.8% | 30 |
Links:
[1] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2000
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/week-12-sets-scoring-record
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods#dvoa
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/glossary#estimated_wins
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/glossary#variance