2008 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 12/29/2008

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2008, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	PHI	31.7%	11	30.5%	2	9-6-1	9.3%	12	-20.7%	3	1.6%	13
2	BAL	30.3%	22	29.7%	3	11-5	5.6%	18	-24.5%	2	0.2%	17
3	NYG	29.4%	15	23.8%	5	12-4	23.4%	2	-4.0%	8	2.0%	11
4	PIT	27.0%	8	30.8%	1	12-4	1.7%	20	-26.4%	1	-1.1%	23
5	TEN	27.0%	10	24.4%	4	13-3	8.8%	14	-16.9%	5	1.3%	15
6	CAR	19.8%	27	21.9%	7	12-4	18.6%	6	1.3%	10	2.5%	10
7	IND	15.4%	2	22.6%	6	12-4	21.3%	4	3.7%	14	-2.2%	26
8	SD	12.3%	6	14.7%	10	8-8	21.3%	3	10.7%	22	1.7%	12
9	NO	11.5%	21	16.7%	9	8-8	23.7%	1	11.6%	24	-0.6%	22
10	MIA	9.2%	29	7.5%	13	11-5	17.1%	7	3.0%	13	-4.9%	29
11	NE	9.2%	1	17.5%	8	11-5	14.6%	9	8.9%	20	3.5%	6
12	ATL	8.4%	28	9.8%	11	11-5	16.5%	8	11.4%	23	3.3%	7
13	TB	7.7%	7	2.4%	17	9-7	0.3%	21	-7.6%	6	-0.3%	19
14	MIN	6.8%	14	5.3%	14	10-6	-4.9%	23	-18.2%	4	-6.5%	32
15	DAL	6.3%	3	8.8%	12	9-7	8.5%	16	-0.7%	9	-2.9%	27
16	GB	6.2%	5	3.7%	15	6-10	9.2%	13	2.7%	12	-0.3%	20
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	CHI	5.2%	20	-0.7%	18	9-7	-4.3%	22	-5.5%	7	4.1%	5
18	WAS	4.6%	12	-4.4%	20	8-8	8.5%	15	1.9%	11	-2.1%	25
19	NYJ	2.2%	25	2.6%	16	9-7	3.2%	19	3.9%	16	2.8%	8
20	ARI	-0.5%	23	-7.9%	21	9-7	11.9%	10	9.3%	21	-3.1%	28
21	HOU	-7.2%	17	-2.5%	19	8-8	11.4%	11	19.1%	29	0.5%	16
22	JAC	-8.5%	4	-10.5%	22	5-11	7.0%	17	15.0%	26	-0.5%	21
23	DEN	-11.0%	18	-19.2%	26	8-8	21.0%	5	26.2%	31	-5.8%	31
24	BUF	-13.6%	19	-18.4%	24	7-9	-6.2%	24	13.5%	25	6.0%	1
25	SF	-18.8%	32	-23.1%	29	7-9	-14.6%	27	8.8%	19	4.6%	3
26	OAK	-20.5%	30	-20.6%	28	5-11	-17.7%	31	8.6%	18	5.8%	2
27	CIN	-21.2%	16	-14.4%	23	4-11-1	-15.4%	29	3.7%	15	-2.1%	24
28	CLE	-21.6%	13	-25.0%	30	4-12	-17.5%	30	8.4%	17	4.3%	4
29	SEA	-23.0%	9	-18.7%	25	4-12	-9.5%	26	16.3%	27	2.8%	9
30	KC	-29.6%	26	-19.3%	27	2-14	-6.3%	25	17.5%	28	-5.7%	30
31	STL	-42.1%	31	-35.0%	31	2-14	-18.6%	32	23.3%	30	-0.2%	18
32	DET	-47.3%	24	-42.1%	32	0-16	-15.3%	28	33.3%	32	1.4%	14

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA gives performance without adjustments for schedule strength, fumble recovery luck, and weather/altitude on special teams.
ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
PYTHAGOREAN WINS [3] represent the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as described in this article [4].
VARIANCE [5] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance, Washington) to least consistent (#32, highest variance, Oakland).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	2008 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR	RANK
1	PHI	31.7%	9-6-1	29.5%	11.4	4	1.5%	13	11.3	5	13.7%	10
2	BAL	30.3%	11-5	29.3%	11.8	1	3.5%	6	11.9	2	16.1%	15
3	NYG	29.4%	12-4	27.5%	11.6	2	2.6%	8	11.3	4	21.7%	27
4	PIT	27.0%	12-4	22.2%	11.1	5	5.9%	4	11.8	3	12.0%	5
5	TEN	27.0%	13-3	27.2%	11.5	3	-2.7%	25	12.1	1	12.9%	7
6	CAR	19.8%	12-4	18.8%	10.2	7	0.4%	17	10.1	9	14.3%	11
7	IND	15.4%	12-4	16.5%	10.4	6	1.8%	11	10.2	8	21.2%	25
8	SD	12.3%	8-8	14.1%	9.9	8	-1.6%	23	10.2	7	20.2%	22
9	NO	11.5%	8-8	12.3%	9.6	9	-1.3%	22	9.5	11	13.0%	8
10	MIA	9.2%	11-5	21.1%	9.2	10	-7.2%	30	8.8	16	16.6%	17
11	NE	9.2%	11-5	12.5%	9.0	13	-6.0%	29	10.6	6	28.7%	30
12	ATL	8.4%	11-5	8.8%	9.0	12	-0.6%	19	9.7	10	21.0%	24
13	TB	7.7%	9-7	8.8%	8.4	16	-0.9%	21	9.0	14	19.0%	21
14	MIN	6.8%	10-6	3.5%	8.5	15	2.0%	9	9.2	12	15.4%	14
15	DAL	6.3%	9-7	2.9%	8.4	17	4.7%	5	7.9	19	28.6%	29
16	GB	6.2%	6-10	6.1%	8.4	18	-0.8%	20	8.9	15	15.0%	13
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	2008 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR	RANK
17	CHI	5.2%	9-7	3.8%	9.0	11	-0.3%	18	8.7	17	10.4%	4
18	WAS	4.6%	8-8	-0.2%	8.3	19	1.8%	12	7.0	22	5.5%	1
19	NYJ	2.2%	9-7	9.3%	8.5	14	-7.4%	31	9.2	13	16.8%	18
20	ARI	-0.5%	9-7	2.6%	7.8	20	-3.9%	27	8.0	18	29.1%	31
21	HOU	-7.2%	8-8	-11.0%	6.5	22	2.6%	7	7.3	21	13.3%	9
22	JAC	-8.5%	5-11	-9.6%	7.6	21	1.9%	10	6.2	25	7.9%	3
23	DEN	-11.0%	8-8	-9.9%	6.5	23	-3.2%	26	6.2	24	21.4%	26
24	BUF	-13.6%	7-9	-7.6%	6.3	24	-7.6%	32	7.8	20	12.7%	6
25	SF	-18.8%	7-9	-12.1%	6.3	25	-5.5%	28	6.9	23	7.2%	2
26	OAK	-20.5%	5-11	-21.7%	5.4	27	1.3%	15	4.6	27	31.1%	32
27	CIN	-21.2%	4-11-1	-28.4%	5.0	29	8.9%	2	3.2	30	17.4%	19
28	CLE	-21.6%	4-12	-29.5%	5.9	26	9.1%	1	4.4	28	20.2%	23
29	SEA	-23.0%	4-12	-21.0%	5.3	28	-1.9%	24	5.4	26	17.7%	20
30	KC	-29.6%	2-14	-29.1%	4.3	30	1.4%	14	4.4	29	15.0%	12
31	STL	-42.1%	2-14	-40.6%	2.7	31	0.5%	16	2.6	32	24.4%	28
32	DET	-47.3%	0-16	-49.2%	2.5	32	6.0%	3	2.8	31	16.4%	16

DVOA version: 5.0