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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus

LINKS OUTSIDE THE OUTSIDERS

Football Outsiders is affiliated with Baseball Prospectus and writes exclusive NFL content for FOXSports.com, ESPN, and AOL Sports.

* * * * * * *

ARTICLES BY THE OUTSIDERS APPEARING ELSEWHERE

ESPN: Archive of Aaron Schatz's weekly QB ratings and other articles from 2004.
The New York Sun: The staff of Football Outsiders writes regularly for this newspaper's sports section. NO LONGER subscription required.
SEAHAWKS.NET: Our own Doug Farrar is editor-in-chief and writes a number of articles for the Scout.com network.

NATIONAL COLUMNISTS

Gregg Easterbrook's Tuesday Morning Quarterback archive at NFL.com and current articles at ESPN.com.
Tien Mao's archive of TMQ's ESPN.com articles, 2002-2003
Slate's archive of TMQ articles, 2000-2002

John Clayton, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Len Pasquarelli, ESPN
Michael Smith, ESPN (Note: not the same as Michael David Smith from Football Outsiders)
Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback, SI
Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman, SI
Dan Pompei, Sporting News.com Matt Mosley's Hashmarks blog on ESPN.com
Eric Edholm's Around the NFL blog on the Pro Football Weekly website
NFL.com
King Kaufman, Salon (also writes about other sports, but was an early supporter of our site)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Pro Football Reference Blog: Doug Drinen of Pro Football Reference is now blogging with statistical analysis Monday through Friday. He was one of the main inspirations behind FO, and the new blog is always interesting.
Two Minute Warning: This site also uses the theories from Palmer and Carroll's Hidden Game of Football to develop statistics, but mostly uses those statistics to give gambling advice. Lots of good stuff here, although much of it is subscription-only. (Subscriptions are $99 a year.) The guy behind TMW, Roland Beech, now devotes more time to a very good NBA site (see below).
Beatpaths: This FO reader has developed an objective "power ranking" system entirely based on wins and losses, but it cancels out any games where one team beats another, which beats a third, which beat the first, creating a loop. Features funky graphs.
Football Scientist: K.C. Joyner also lays claim to the mantle of Bill James when it comes to analyzing the NFL, but comes at the game from a very different angle. He's an independent game tape analyst, creating new numbers based on watching games for things like what types of routes each receiver runs, and how good cornerback coverage is. Most content is subscription.
Football Commentary: William Krasker uses his Dynamic Programming Model to determine the proper strategy for various in-game coaching decisions. If Keith Woolner's writing at Baseball Prospectus gives you a headache, this site is not for you.
Pigskin Revolution: Very similar to Football Commentary, this website has a model that judges in-game strategy (they call it "ZEUS"). Created by Frank Frigo, a former world champion in backgammon, and Chuck Bower, an Indiana University physicist.
Bud Goode Sports: Inventor of the "killer stat," and leader of the school of Pass Efficiency Uber Alles.
SportsQuant.com: A newer site with some analysis of various in-game strategic decisions, as well as statistically-based college football ratings.
Ross Smith's Receiver Rating Page: One fan's attempt to turn QB rating around and apply it to receivers throughout NFL history.
FFToday.com Stats: Five years worth of numbers showing the average stats allowed to each position by each defense. Also includes the average defensive stats allowed to each defensive position by each offense.

OTHER NEWS AND COMMENTARY SITES

Pro Football Talk: Features a round-up of news and rumors each day, plus opinion columns and draft links.
NFL Beat Writer Blogs: Links to every blog kept by NFL beat writers. Extremely useful.
NFL Former Players: A discussion board for issues affecting retired National Football League players, with a focus on bettering pension and disability benefits.
Ron Jaworski's Home Page: The best NFL analyst around has his own page, complete with a regularly updated blog called "Jaws Bites."
Sports Forecaster: Service syndicated to multiple newspaper websites with NFL news, scouting reports, and features. FO's Mike Tanier used to write for them -- most of the material in the archives pre-2005 is probably his work.
Down and Distance: another general NFL commentary weblog.
FootballInjuries.com is the best site on the Web for information about -- duh -- football injuries. Unfortunately, the content is almost entirely subscription. Well, it's not that unfortunate for the writers, I guess.
Sports Central's NFL page has various articles and weekly power ratings.
Gridiron Grumblings has columns from a staff of fans, as well as a regular statistics article and power ratings.
Gridiron Fans has the infamous "Bang!" Cartoons, original articles, and what they advertise as a "100% Uncensored Football Forum, No Holds Barred!"
Fan 2 Fan Alliance and NFL Fans Network both connect you to fan sites for almost every NFL team.
Helmet2Helmet.net has NFL news, mock drafts, podcasts and forums, plus fantasy football and a free pick 'em game.
Football Blogs links to -- surprise! -- football blogs.

FANTASY FOOTBALL

Footballguys.com: More than any other fantasy football site on the Web, this one gives advice based on objective analysis rather than subjective "I like player X this week" comments. Everything written before August 1 is free, everything after that is subscription.
Doug Drinen article archive: Drinen is the best writer for footballguys.com as well as the proprietor of Pro Football Reference. This archive collects his articles doing statistical analysis with a fantasy football bent from 2000 through 2002.
PROTRADE: An online stock market to buy and sell athletes based on performance.
Ask the Commish: Very good fantasy site with lots of statistics -- including hard-to-find stats on individual defensive players -- as well as interesting information on free agency and the draft.
KFFL: Fantasy news and great message boards, one for each NFL team.
Fantasy Tailgate: Fair and balanced fantasy football information with news, notes, the famous Starters & Slackers and more.
Fantasy Football Toolbox: The usual mix of news, cheatsheets, and advice.
Fantasy Football Sharks: If you like your fantasy news and advice mixed with a bit of obnoxious humor, this is the site for you.
Fantasy Football Cafe: News, cheat sheets, sleepers, NFL player rankings, strategy tips and advice, predictions and forums.
Rotoworld: The latest rumors and injury news.
Roto Times: Same.
Roto Wire: Same.

NFL DRAFT

Draft History offers what it advertises: draft history.
GM Jr.: Russ Lande, who writes this draft guide, was nice enough to provide us with his scouting reports for the 2006 draft.
Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN
NFL Draft Countdown
NFL Draft Blitz
Great Blue North Draft Report

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEBLOGS AND SITES

College Football Victory Chain Linker: Creates a sequential list of college football teams which theoretically will show that any college football teams is better than any other college football team. This can produce results such as NAIA McPherson College being better than Division 1-A co-National Champions USC and LSU in 2003. Lots of fun.
MGO Blog: Covers University of Michigan sports in general with emphasis on college football; home of the new NCAA Blogpoll, in which Russell Levine is a voter.
Sea Misting: Matt Melton with intelligent analysis on both college and pro football, mostly college. Not a lot of people doing stat work with college football so this is worth a look.
College Football Stats: Sortable with splits like stats by down, location on field, and so on.
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Every Day Should Be Saturday

GENERAL SPORTS BUSINESS AND LAW

Maury Brown (from Baseball Prospectus and PFP 2007) Biz of Sports
The SportsBiz Blog
The Sports Economist
Sports Law Blog

USEFUL INFORMATION

J.P. Kirby's weekly NFL television coverage maps show you which games will be on in which markets.
Football 101 is filled with great descriptions of football plays, formations, and strategies, similar to the Football Outsiders Strategy Minicamps columns.
Ask the Commish's Salary Cap FAQand Free Agency FAQ
USA Today NFL salary database (FINALLY updated with 2004 and 2005)
January 2005 NFLPA Report on 2004 Salary Trends (Note: PDF file)
History of NFL Rules: All of the rule changes from year to year, courtesy of SteelersFever.com.
2006 NFL opponents (From a Packers fan site; use pull-down menu for other 31 teams)
Official Gil Thorp Website (the inspiration for Jason Beattie's weekly cartoons)
Football Links: More links than the breakfast sausage platter at Packers training camp.

USEFUL ARTICLES


It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic-Programming Analysis of Football Strategy: The famous article by Berkeley professor David Romer. The Real West Coast Offense: Oft-sited article by Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman on the historical inaccuracy of the term "West Coast Offense" as it is currently used.
Greatest Teams of All Time: ESPN series by Eddie Epstein which served as basis for his book Dominance.

FOOTBALL HISTORY

Doug Drinen's Pro Football Reference: The writers at Football Outsiders probably use this site more than any other on the Internet when writing any articles that include historical information. Recently redesigned with a ridiculous amount of additional data.
John Troan's NFL Box Scores: NFL box scores for all games since 1994. This site also has a stats database that fills in some gaps in Pro Football Reference, particularly in historical rosters including non-"skill position" players.
Database Football: A new alternative to the previous two sites from the folks who run RotoWire.com.
College Football Data Warehouse: Includes all-time records for every school and every coach at all levels of college football, plus all-time bowl results.
Remember the AFL, USFL, and XFL.
ESPN's 20-year anniversary USFL history package.
Professional Football Researchers Association: Lots of historical articles and a forum full of people who inexplicably hate us.
The NFL Weather Hall of Fame: Best cold, rain, and snow games ever.
The History of Football Video Games: And with the first pick in the draft, the Houston Texans select ... Intellivision Running Guy!
NFL Team History: All kinds of historical data, including franchise history, records, retired numbers, Hall of Famers, draft history, tickets, rules, and cheerleaders pages.
The Helmet Project: Remarkable on-line archive of images representing the football helmets worn by nearly every college and pro football team in history, from the NFL to the CFL, from Arena ball to the XFL and USFL, and from NCAA Division I to the NAIA.
Helmet Hut: While the Helmet Project is more about the logos on the Helmets, Helmet Hut is more of a tribute to helmet design, particularly the historical development of facemasks, with photos of game-used historical helmets as well as authentic reproductions.
Stadiums of the NFL: Information on all 32 stadiums plus historical data and short articles on past stadiums and proposed future stadiums.
Football Source: This site allows you to enter two NFL teams and get all historical head-to-head results.
Football Uniforms Past and Present.

COMPUTER SIMULATION GAMES

Front Office Football: This NFL management simulation from Solecismic Software focuses on elements of the game you won't find in more traditional computer games. You build the playbook, but also handle trades, free agency, contracts, and the draft, with a far more complex model than more standard NFL games. The detailed statistics for your team include Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards.

RECOMMENDED LINKS

COAST TO COAST TICKETS

STUBHUB.COM

TALK SPORTS & HANDICAPPING

GOTICKETS.COM

TICKET SOLUTIONS

VIVID SEATS

BEST SHOW TICKETS

SPECIFIC TEAM BLOGS

Reiss's Pieces: Great Patriots blog by Boston Globe reporter Mike Reiss.
Kevin Lynch's Niner Insider
Patriots Daily
Seahawks Insider
Texans Chick at the Houston Chronicle website
Pittsburgh Steelers (by FO staffer Ryan Wilson)
The Black and Gold Blog (Steelers)
4th-and-26 (Eagles)
NJ.com Big Blue Blog (Giants)
The Dallas Cowboys.net
Dallas Cowboy Fans United
Acme Packing Company (Green Bay)
NY Jets Blog
NFL Giants
NYGMen
The Patriot Act
Residual Prolixity (Tennessee Titans)
Chargers Confidential
Dawghouse Blog
(Cleveland Browns)
Bengal Stripes
Detroit Lions Weblog
Hail Redskins
Seahawks.NET
49ers News
49ers Paradise
Vikes Geek
Cowboy Blog
Scrapple's Eagles Blog
Raising Zona (Cardinals)
Phin Phanatic (Dolphins)
Arrowhead Addict (Chiefs)
Naptown's Finest (Colts)
The Viking Age
Predominantly Orange (Broncos)
The Hater Nation (More of an anti-team blog, mixing some anti-Raiders talk with some pro-Rams talk)

UN-OFFICIAL SPECIFIC TEAM SALARY CAP PAGES

Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills at BillsDaily
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miguel's New England Patriots Page
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders (Note: Downloads an Excel file, not an HTML page)
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Niner Cap Hell (San Francisco 49ers)
Washington Redskins at TheWarpath.net
Washington Redskins at TheHogs.net

We're looking for more of these, so if you know of one for a team not on this list, please e-mail us. And if you want to start one for a team not on this list, we would be happy to host it at FootballOutsiders.com.

YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO LOOK

NFL Cheerleader Blog

INTELLIGENT ANALYSIS FOR OTHER SPORTS

MLB: Baseball Prospectus (our partners)
MLB: Baseball Primer
MLB: Hardball Times
NBA: Roland Beech's 82 Games
NBA: APBRMetrics board
NBA/NCAA Basketball: Basketball Prospectus
NCAA Basketball: Ken Pomeroy's kenpom.com
NCAA Basketball: Hack the Bracket
NHL: Gabriel Desjardins's Behind the Net
NHL: Iain Fyffe's Puckerings
NHL: Hockey Rodent
English Soccer: Football Review
Big Soccer's Statistics and Analysis board

HE AIN'T HEAVY, HE'S OUR BUDDY

Boston Sports Media Watch

OUR OTHER LIVES/SITE DESIGNERS

Jason's Comic World
Jason's Gil Thorp Blog
B:COMPLEX Creative
Built for the Future
Distance Software

Care to suggest a link? Email us at info-at-footballoutsiders.com. We're especially looking for other team-specific blogs for our list.