Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Football Outsiders Features

Walkthrough: Just Deserters

Some Colts fans may find the Super Bowl blacked out on Sunday. Mike Tanier explains who they are, and why they deserve it. Plus, second-window passes and a debate over the greatest Saints quarterback of all time.

144 comments, Last Comment at 08 Feb 2010, 8:57am by Kevin from Philly

Feb 04, 2010 10:55am by Mike Tanier || read all Walkthrough articles

DVOA for Conference Championships

Here's a look at DVOA ratings for the AFC and NFC championship games. (Click to read more.)

73 comments, Last Comment at 28 Jan 2010, 3:06pm by Dr. I Don't Know

Jan 25, 2010 01:49pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Super Bowl XLIV Quick Reads

Before running down DYAR numbers from Super Bowl XLIV, Bill Barnwell gives his thoughts on Sean Payton's aggressive and intelligent play calls.

40 comments, Last Comment at 11:56am by SHogun-6

Feb 08, 2010 10:24pm GMT by Bill Barnwell || read all Quick Reads articles

Cover-3: Super Bowl Edition

In the Cover-3 season finale, Doug Farrar details the best quarter-million Sean Payton ever spent, why the extra "g" in Gregg Williams' name may indeed stand for genius, and how the Saints enhance their protection concepts.

10 comments, Last Comment at 02 Feb 2010, 11:42pm by mediator12

Feb 01, 2010 11:45am by Doug Farrar || read all Cover-3 articles

Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Your Scramble writers continue the proud tradition of ridiculous bets on even more ridiculous Super Bowl propositions. Plus: The commercial of the year!

41 comments, Last Comment at 07 Feb 2010, 1:13am by jebmak

Feb 03, 2010 09:20pm by Mike Kurtz || read all Scramble articles

Black and Blue Report: January 14, 2010

Will Carroll triumphantly returns with a look at the remaining playoff teams, and how their injuries affect the road to the Super Bowl.

20 comments, Last Comment at 15 Jan 2010, 1:39pm by Scott C

Jan 14, 2010 03:18pm by Will Carroll || read all Black And Blue articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLIV

The Saints are champions. FO breaks down the game with analysis of the gutsy calls, the big mistakes, and the interception that broke Twitter.

234 comments, Last Comment at 11:48am by ChiJeff

Feb 08, 2010 01:47am GMT by Bill Barnwell || read all Audibles articles

Final 2009 FEI Ratings

After toppling Texas, Alabama is a clear-cut No. 1, but there are plenty of surprises in the final FEI ratings after that. Brian Fremeau discusses the peculiarities of a season that left us wondering and wanting more.

89 comments, Last Comment at 28 Jan 2010, 6:40am by fake watches

Jan 12, 2010 01:55pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

One Foot Inbounds: Texas Toast

McCoy makes an early exit with a shoulder injury, and Alabama holds off a fourth-quarter comeback to win.

109 comments, Last Comment at 10 Jan 2010, 2:29am by Stravinsky

Jan 08, 2010 01:12am by Robert Weintraub || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

BCS Championship Preview + Live Blog

Brian, Rob and Bill give you an in-depth look at tonight's BCS title game. Can Colt McCoy cap his career with a title, or do the favored Tide have the edge? Come back at 8pm for a Cover It Live in-game blog.

12 comments, Last Comment at 18 Jan 2010, 11:24pm by ugg Australia

Jan 07, 2010 11:52am by Bill Connelly || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: Tradition and Tackiness

A title recap, a history lesson, and a peek into 2010. It's all here in the final Varsity Numbers of the 2009 season.

10 comments, Last Comment at 20 Jan 2010, 5:06pm by Kevin from Philly

Jan 14, 2010 01:31pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Under the Cap: Poison Pill

Could 2010 see a revival of the "poison pill" contract? J.I. thinks that the slate of quality restricted free agents may be too much for teams to resist.

44 comments, Last Comment at 02 Feb 2010, 4:11pm by bitter hawk fan

Jan 27, 2010 11:54am by J.I. Halsell || read all Under The Cap articles

The Week in Quotes: February 9, 2010

The Week in Quotes wraps up with a look at the good, the bad, and the weird from the Super Bowl.

0 comments

Feb 09, 2010 11:23am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Innovative Statistics

2009 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted (w/playoffs)
1BAL32.5% 1BAL34.7%
2GB30.3% 2NO33.3%
3PHI28.6% 4IND25.4%
4NE28.3% 8MIN19.8%
5DAL26.0% 12NYJ17.2%
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2009 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1NE29.7% 1SD28.7%
2NO27.6% 2NE26.8%
3DAL24.2% 3GB25.6%
4GB22.5% 4NO24.3%
5SD21.8% 5DAL22.7%
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2009 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1NYJ-23.4% 1NYJ-26.8%
2GB-14.0% 2CAR-18.7%
3BAL-13.6% 3GB-17.9%
4SF-12.3% 4SF-14.4%
5CAR-11.6% 5BAL-12.4%
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2009 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1CLE8.8% 1CLE8.3%
2PHI4.3% 2TB5.2%
3MIN4.2% 3PHI4.0%
4CHI4.0% 4BAL3.6%
5TB3.1% 5STL3.5%
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QUARTERBACKS 2009

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1T.BradyNE2,170 1P.RiversSD46.1%
2P.ManningIND1,932 2T.BradyNE44.1%
3P.RiversSD1,919 3D.BreesNO41.0%
4D.BreesNO1,846 4B.FavreMIN39.0%
5B.FavreMIN1,803 5P.ManningIND38.1%
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RUNNING BACKS 2009

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)		Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)		Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1C.JohnsonTEN343 1P.ThomasNO25.9% 1D.SprolesSD181
2R.GrantGB251 2J.CharlesKC20.4% 2S.SlatonHOU167
3R.RiceBAL241 3W.McGaheeBAL19.6% 3R.RiceBAL128
4J.CharlesKC233 4J.ForsettSEA18.4% 4K.SmithDET126
5P.ThomasNO220 5F.JonesDAL17.0% 5F.JacksonBUF124
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2009

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1S.RiceMIN476 1V.JacksonSD39.6%
2V.JacksonSD452 2R.MeachemNO39.2%
3W.WelkerNE423 3S.RiceMIN35.4%
4M.AustinDAL397 4M.WallacePIT29.7%
5R.MossNE395 5M.AustinDAL28.4%
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TIGHT ENDS 2009

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.GatesSD358 1B.WatsonNE49.3%
2D.ClarkIND261 2A.GatesSD38.4%
3V.ShiancoeMIN226 3V.ShiancoeMIN33.7%
4J.WittenDAL216 4O.DanielsHOU27.4%
5B.CelekPHI201 5T.HeapBAL27.4%
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DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

SUPER BOWL ODDS
New Orleans: 52.2%
Indianapolis: 47.8%

Most Recent Articles

09 Feb 2010, 11:23am by Rory Hickey

The Week in Quotes: February 9, 2010

The Week in Quotes wraps up with a look at the good, the bad, and the weird from the Super Bowl.

» More...

0 comments

08 Feb 2010, 10:24pm by Bill Barnwell

Super Bowl XLIV Quick Reads

Before running down DYAR numbers from Super Bowl XLIV, Bill Barnwell gives his thoughts on Sean Payton's aggressive and intelligent play calls.

» More...

40 comments, Last at 11:56am by SHogun-6

08 Feb 2010, 01:47am by Bill Barnwell

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLIV

The Saints are champions. FO breaks down the game with analysis of the gutsy calls, the big mistakes, and the interception that broke Twitter.

» More...

234 comments, Last at 11:48am by ChiJeff

07 Feb 2010, 02:07pm by Doug Farrar

Super Bowl Pre-Audibles Special

Check out our open Super Bowl discussion thread, plus special early pre-game Audibles. Also the place to discuss the Saints' victory until our regular Audibles get posted later tonight.

» More...

29 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2010, 2:38pm by tgt2

04 Feb 2010, 11:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Perhaps the closest Super Bowl pairing since we started FO, Colts vs. Saints will be decided by numerous intricate situational matchups plus the arbitrary swings of serendipity. All our usual stats and film analysis is here.

» More...

65 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2010, 9:46pm by jebmak

04 Feb 2010, 08:41pm by Bill Connelly

ESPN: Recruiting on the Rise and in Decline

In the second part of his recent ESPN Insider series on recruiting, our own Bill Connelly looks at which teams and conferences have been getting better (Big East) or worse (Pac-10).

» More...

10 comments, Last at 06 Feb 2010, 5:54pm by young curmudgeon

04 Feb 2010, 03:35pm by Aaron Schatz

Stat of the Day: 2009 CB Charting Stats II

An old Titan, a couple young Dolphins, and a very injured Seahawk sit at the bottom of our 2009 game charting statistics for cornerbacks.

» More...

17 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2010, 2:51pm by Vince Verhei

04 Feb 2010, 03:26pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Super Bowl XLIV Numbers Crunching

Super Bowl Numbers Crunching brings you tons of DVOA splits and other FO stats about the big game, including how the two quarterbacks do when hurried, the best direction for New Orleans to run, and the important penalty referee Scott Green rarely calls.

» More...

0 comments

04 Feb 2010, 10:55am by Mike Tanier

Walkthrough: Just Deserters

Some Colts fans may find the Super Bowl blacked out on Sunday. Mike Tanier explains who they are, and why they deserve it. Plus, second-window passes and a debate over the greatest Saints quarterback of all time.

» More...

144 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2010, 8:57am by Kevin from Philly

03 Feb 2010, 09:20pm by Mike Kurtz

Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Your Scramble writers continue the proud tradition of ridiculous bets on even more ridiculous Super Bowl propositions. Plus: The commercial of the year!

» More...

41 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2010, 1:13am by jebmak

03 Feb 2010, 02:43pm by Aaron Schatz

Stat of the Day: 2009 CB Charting Stats

Revis Fever! Here's our first look at the best cornerbacks of 2009 according to the FO Game Charting Project. A longtime FO favorite returns to glory, while a recent subject of FO criticism gets a well-deserved apology.

» More...

57 comments, Last at 3:08am by replica handbags

02 Feb 2010, 02:49pm by Guest

Adjusted Comeback Efficiency

Guest columnist Nicholas Higgins proposes a new statistic to free us from the endless cavalcade of "quarterback comeback" graphics: Adjusted Comeback Efficiency. Eli Manning approves.

» More...

118 comments, Last at 4:08am by tuluse