Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Feb 2018

ESPN: Projecting Top 10 Picks in 2019 NFL Draft

Is this way too early and a little ridiculous? Yes! Did I do it anyway when the ESPN editors asked? Yes! On average, two playoff teams will decline enough to pick in the top 10 of the following draft, and I think you can guess which two playoff teams got into the article.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 06 Feb 2018

2 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2018, 12:02am by Chip


by coboney :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 7:50pm

Oh oh! I'll guess Bills and Titans!

by Chip :: Thu, 02/08/2018 - 12:02am

Close, both were in the top 10 (3rd / 9th respectively).

Answer: CHI, NYG (don't get either one),

CHI was the most injured team over the last 2 years. 21 / 16 on IR each season, including 10 projected week 1 starters last yr. Also had toughest SOS in the league last yr (played MIN 2x, PHI, NO, ATL, CAR, BAL, PIT, DET, GB, all playoff / contenders as of wk 17). Third youngest team in the league. Underperformed Pythag. Wins by a game. These factors weigh heavily in season projections. Practically speaking, CHI also started a rookie QB with all of 9 starts since his high school days. Despite these challenges, they played a mid-20ish DVOA.

Similar story with NYG, 5th hardest schedule, 25 guys on IR, U/P pythag wins by a game.

What gives?