Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

05 Feb 2018

Monday Morning Digest: Dawn of the Eagles Dynasty

This may have been a real changing of the guard in the NFL, because the Philadelphia Eagles are a young team bringing almost everyone back next year. Could this be the launch of an Eagles dynasty? Plus, the real MVPs of Super Bowl LII: the Philadelphia running backs.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 05 Feb 2018

23 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2018, 10:14am by NoraDaddy

Comments

1
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 12:49pm

Digetst?

2
by serutan :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 12:54pm

Mike might not be entirely sobered up yet.
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17
by Kevin from Philly :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 12:56pm

Kinda makes those “Tanier is Raider Joe” theories more plausible doesn’t it?

19
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 3:18pm

Al Davis was RaiderJoe.

Joe's less active and slightly better-spelled recent years have been Mark Davis.

3
by TecmoBoso :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 1:12pm

Err, I'm a little more skeptical, mainly because we don't know how Wentz will be coming off the ACL, he isn't as reliant on his athleticism as RGIII, but Wentz isn't a pure pocket passer either. If Wentz comes back as good, then the Eagles should be in good shape, but if he lost a tenth of a step and it turns out that's what separated him from being a top-5 QB to an average one, they'll live and die by how good the D is year to year.

There are some questions around the core guys too. Lane Johnson already has two PED violations. A third would rip a huge hole in their Oline. Ertz and Jeffery aren't exactly the embodiment of health, both stayed relatively healthy this year.

They've traded a lot of draft picks over the last few seasons, which helped the team win a SB, but obviously may impact future seasons.

But this does come down to Wentz, and if he's back to where he was this year, they'll be fine for the next decade.

4
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 1:54pm

I'm hesitant to crown any incipient dynasty, especially in the NFC.

We saw how quickly the Falcons and Cowboys returned to earth, how mortal the Packers are without Rodgers, and how the Seahawks dynasty never quite took hold.

The Cardinals proved that you can't just take a great defense, stick a corpse behind center and expect to make multiple Super Bowls like you can in the AFC.

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I think Mike also made a comment re: who thought Foles? Thing is, once the Eagles got to the SB, it had become clear that Foles wasn't a huge liability. If he had been, they'd have bowed out in the Division game.

6
by TecmoBoso :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 2:22pm

I thought Foles would still be a liability in the Super Bowl. Turns on the Pats defense was even worse than expected and Foles, to his credit, took advantage for the most part. If I was a GM and needed a QB, I wouldn't sell the draft pick farm for him.

Re: Seahawks, the 80s Bears are probably the best example of a "how did they only win one Super Bowl" in the Super Bowl era... but these (those?) Seahawks teams are up there.
I'd add the Greatest Show on Turf Rams, 90s Packers, 00s Colts, and maybe the 10s Packers; but they haven't been all that well coached.

5
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 2:06pm

too many thongs can happen for ti not to become dynasty. heard akll this dynasty talk with sweghawks after dismantled broncos in super bwol. since then, no super bowl titlers.

22
by JimZipCode :: Wed, 02/07/2018 - 12:59am

I don't think too many thongs can happen.

23
by NoraDaddy :: Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:14am

It all depends on who's wearing them.

7
by ChrisS :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 4:44pm

I don't think there will be another Dynasty in the NFL. I think the last dynasty was the Patriots of 2001-2004. The Patriots since then have been mostly very good but with only 2 Dynastic parts, B&B

9
by BJR :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 6:03pm

The Seahawks won the DVOA title 4 years running from 2012-2016. They were a dominant team fit to mention alongside almost any other in NFL history over a 3-4 year stretch, unless we are using number of Super Bowl wins as the sole measurement.

10
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 6:37pm

You play. To win. The game.

11
by serutan :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:48pm

For (IMO) far too many people, SB wins *are* the only thing that counts.
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14
by dryheat :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 8:31am

Well, wins are, in general. I don't know anybody who follows their team hoping they'll win the season DVOA title.

12
by Independent George :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 10:38pm

No, the Pats won two sets of multiple Super Bowls separated by a decade.

During the 'drought' from 2005-2013, the Pats went 110-34 (0.764), won the AFC East eight times (going 11-5 in the single year that they didn't), and went to two Super Bowls out of five AFC Championship games.

2001-2018 is a single, dominant dynasty. The only comparable runs in the modern era in both duration and postseason success are the Niners from '81 to '98, or the Landry Cowboys from '66 to '85. Lombardi won 5 NFL Championships/Super Bowls from '59 to '67.

ETA: I forgot the Noll Steelers (which didn't last as long), the Madden/Flores Raiders (which was less consistent), Shula (who had significantly less postseason success), and Gibbs (which was also shorter).

16
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 9:36am

When Belichick finally retires the league will be an interesting place for parity.

He's the one coach/GM who really has knowledge and flexibility to continuously build championship calibre teams without the salary cap getting in the way.

It's hard to see another coach/GM coming through who will be able to reinvent the teams to avoid getting hit by the curse of the rookie salary cap.

8
by the cat in the ... :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 5:57pm

I would love to be wrong, but I think the Eagles have an immediate window at greatness roughly as long as Carson Wentz' rookie contract. Then I think the same thing will happen to the Eagles that the Seahawks are suffering through now: a great team gradually split apart by its franchise Quarterback's mega-contract. I think there's a way back from that, but it does worry me for the long term.

15
by dank067 :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 8:56am

I don't think Seattle has been split apart by Wilson's contract—at least not yet. He's only accounted for 8%, 12%, and then 9% of their cap in the seasons since he's signed the extension, which is not that high for a franchise QB. (Starting this season, however, his salary starts to scale up.)

Having a franchise QB on a rookie contract definitely gives you a major step up on the competition, and Seattle took great advantage. Once they did face the need to pay Wilson and figure out who else to keep/give extensions, however, they needed to manage things better than they did. Maybe don't give your QB an $87 million contract and purposely, willfully neglect his offensive line. Or, perhaps think twice about burning draft capital to trade for pricey veterans, hurting your ability to fill your roster with younger, cheaper contributors and useful depth (especially important since you're up against the cap), as well as the ability to groom long-term replacements since you can't keep everyone.

Even having made those mistakes, Seattle was still #1 in DVOA in 2015, a playoff team in 2016, and still appears to me to be in a solid position in a competitive NFC. It's almost impossible to imagine them having more success the past 3 years and being in better position than they are today if they, for whatever reason, moved on from Wilson. The Eagles will have to make sacrifices when it comes time to pay Wentz, but having a franchise QB is a nice place to start from. Plus they already got that first Super Bowl!

18
by Kevin from Philly :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 1:01pm

Seattle is falling due to injuries and age, not cap casualties.

20
by dank067 :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 3:40pm

Another reason why trading away multiple high draft picks the past few seasons was not a good decision for them.

13
by Sixknots :: Mon, 02/05/2018 - 11:06pm

"32 Browns. It would be easier to get excited about their beaucoup draft picks, cap space and rebuilt front office if it wasn't so obvious that they plan to fire Hue Jackson at the very first sign of trouble."

No, he should have been canned a month ago. I keep saying he must have photos.

21
by serutan :: Tue, 02/06/2018 - 9:41pm

Maybe Jeff Fisher sold his photos to Hue.
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