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05 Nov 2009

Year of the Kicker: Lather, Rinse, and Repeat

I swear to god, Len Pasquarelli writes this column every year. He points out sometime at midseason that kicking and punting numbers are at all-time highs. Last year, it was "Brian Moorman is going to break the all-time gross punting record" or some such thing. Len, dude, it is called "weather."

This may be the first Extra Point repeat. I wrote the above paragraph two years ago, linking to a Len Pasquarelli column called NFL Kickers Going the Distance This Season. Two years later, and he's done it yet again. Len, dude, I think you are a great reporter, and I'm glad to have you back. It's good to have you healthy. But it is still called "weather." We haven't figured out how to get rid of it in the last couple years. It's going to be here for a long time. Seriously. Get used to the concept.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 05 Nov 2009

29 comments, Last at 06 Nov 2009, 5:09pm by Bright Blue Shorts

Comments

1
by bubqr :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 11:46am

Ouch

2
by Dean :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 11:48am

Just dont' ask him about Todd Pinkston.

3
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 1:01pm

Interesting I mailed FO on Lechler's averages about a week ago. Bill replied mentioning that punters stats go down as the season goes on.

Except, when I checked Shane Lechler's stats in 2008, his got better!
- After 7 games his gross avg was 48.4, net 41.0
- End of season his gross avg was 48.8, net 41.2

Then I checked Rams punter Donnie Jones.
- After 7 games his gross avg was 49.95, net 39.9
- End of season his gross avg was 50.00, net 41.1

Now of course a small sample of the statistically best two punters in the league with some of the worst offenses isn't to say that Bill's wrong. Just interesting ...

4
by fyo :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 1:18pm

This is a statistical effect and doesn't necessarily apply to specific individuals.

If weather is indeed the culprit, I would wager that the effect is less likely to be pronounced on punters/kickers from fair weather or dome teams. Both your examples fall squarely into that category.

Looking at your specific examples there are further "mitigating" circumstances:

Post-week-7, Lechler played away against the following teams (in order): BAL, MIA, DEN, SD, TB.

Post-week-7, Jones only had 3 away games: NYJ, ARI, ATL.

Not exactly a slew of bad-weather locations. Additionally, the only two potentials (BAL and NYJ) were front-loaded (weeks 8 and 10). And, to harp on an even smaller statistical sample, punting for both players in those weeks were substantially below their season average.

5
by Bobman :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 1:54pm

To further pile on, I'd look at opponent D ratings and the punters' offense performance in the first half/second half. I suspect that on weak teams, these great punters get more chances to punt from their own 30 than from the opponents' 45, meaning that they have to pooch fewer, coffin-corner fewer, and kick fewer touchbacks.

No denying they're good, but they likely benefit from their inept offenses struggling to cross midfield. (Yes, that should apply to the full season unless their O had key injuries that added to a Jeckyll/Hyde season.)

7
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 2:43pm

Absolutely agree. I mainly mention it because it seems like conventional wisdom to make a sweeping statement that averages go down from midseason until the playoffs arrive. And I believe FO isn't about conventional wisdom. Whereas, Lechler and Jones prove, and as you guys suggest with a positive schedule and locations it's not guaranteed to happen.

NFL.com actually breaks stats down by field position, unfortunately not enough for punters (Own 1-20, Own20-mid, Opp Mid-20, Opp 1-20). You get to see that unsurprisingly they kick longer the nearer they are to their own endzone.

Two other things I think that have changed the world of punting are:
- the Aussie rules guys bringing in different types of kicks. I've seen Lechler backspin balls that land inside the opponent's 5-yd line. I believe Darren Bennett (Chargers punter taught the league that one).
- whether more teams are forgoing punts in their opponent's half in favour of going for it on 4th&short.

13
by BenOak (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:08pm

Check out this chart that shows net punt lengths by field position from AdvancedNflStats.com

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3570/3688474079_224025b011_o.png

It's part of his article that explains the cost/benefit analysis to determine whether a team should go for it on 4th down vs punt vs kick a long field goal:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

26
by drobviousso :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 10:56am

Seems like an easy to understand, unified stat would be average % over/under that line. A slightly more informative stat would be a plot for each kicker with that line for reference (e.g. there are probably some guys that are great at booming but bad at downing and vice versa). I guess that could probably be broken into categories.

11
by BenOak (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:04pm

You point about where the punter kicks from raises a good point...net kicking numbers are only half the picture. If you kick for 30 net yards from the opponent's 40, that's a great kick. That same kick from your own 10 is a disaster. Shane Lechler of the Raiders is a good example...he gets to boom his punts because they are always kicking from deep in their own territory.

What you really care about is your opponents starting position but obviously that is going to be heavily influenced by where the punter is kicking from.

In order to combine those two things, you'd like to see the difference between net yardage on a punt and the average net yardage from that position (net yardage over average). I'm actually quite surprised that ISN'T what football outsiders is doing. According to their special teams page, "Kickoffs and punts are based on net yardage. "

That's OK for kickoffs because they are always from the same spot (barring a penalty or safety) but you'd expect it to inflate the punting numbers for bad teams.

A quick check shows a lot of bad offenses at the top of the net punting list:

SF
STL
OAK
KC
PIT
JAC
CLE
DAL
IND
PHI
NYJ
HOU
BUF
MIA
TB
ARI
WAS
MIN
SD
BAL
DET
TEN
NO
CHI
NYG
CIN
NE
SEA
CAR
GB
ATL
DEN

18
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:26pm

The trouble with net yardage is that while it's heavily influenced by the length and hangtime of a kick, it could be that your team has poor coverage. Or one broken tackle might lead to a TD that certainly wasn't the punter's fault.

I actually rate Jeff Feagles (at age 43) as one of the best punters in the game. I saw him at Wembley in 2007 and all his kicks were superb because he went for the sidelines and often within the 20. Last year almost 1/3 of his punts were out of bounds and he average 44.0 yds per kick! Of course he has the opposite problem to Lechler and Jones of having an offense that can move the ball, so he kicks situationally.

I recall that TMQ raised the point that the NFL penalises teams for kickoff out of bounds yet it's a good option when you've got the Devin Hester / Dante Hall / Ted Ginn of the moment about to return your kick ...

20
by BenOak (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 6:58pm

Yeah, I guess I should clarify, when I say punter I don't really mean punter, I mean punter + his coverage team. And punt returner would mean punt returner + his blockers.

It's really the same as RB meaning running back + offensive line + passing game effectiveness. On the football field, no one can really be examined alone.

I'm guessing that Devin Hester/Dante Hall/Ted Ginn never actually average the 40 yardline on their returns.

In 2006 Devin Hester averaged 26.4 yards per kick-off and the league average was 23.7. Over at advancednflstats.com Brian says that the average starting position after the kick-off is the 27 yardline. If we assume that Hester was 3 yards per kick-off better than average the Bears were still starting with average field position of the 30 on kick-offs.

I think that on average you are better off kicking in-bounds and dealing with the return.

22
by tuluse :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 7:14pm

Teams rarely kicked long to Hester in 2006.

21
by BenOak (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 7:07pm

Forget LenP, it's the year of the kick returner. Three of this years kick returners are in the top 20 for yards/return since the merger....Ted Ginn, Percy Harvin, Lardarius Webb

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/R67Bv

25
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 6:21am

They did change the blocking rules to make smaller wedges before the start of season. But I'd have expected that to have been in the tackling teams favour. Perhaps it's just that teams haven't quite worked out how the change can be best used.

6
by jebmak :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 2:33pm

I am really looking forward to the threepeat intro in 2011. I can imagine my excitement now. Don't let me down.

8
by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 3:06pm

Shouldn't look at punters. Weather doesn't affect them nearly as much as it does kickers. After all, if there's a wind up, it's just as likely to be a tailwind as a headwind.

[For students of aerodynamics, yes, I realize that a crosswind is actually a hindrance, and that total airspeed around the ball is the relevant indicator of drag. Still, it hurts the guy trying to put the ball through the uprights more than the guy just booting it.]

9
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 3:17pm

Remember there are a number of issues besides wind. A higher temperature means more lift. Less humidity means more lift. And a higher altitude means less gravity, i.e. more lift.

10
by Global Warming (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 3:42pm

The last piece of the puzzle...

14
by Theo :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:08pm

Don't you think air density is a bigger factor?

15
by BenOak (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:12pm

I think that the altitude difference is actually the air density. There is less atmosphere and thus there is less friction with the atmosphere.

Also, cold air provides less resistance than warm air although I don't know to what amount that offsets warm air providing more lift (wouldn't the extra lift only occur if the field was warmer than the atmosphere so that air near the field was warmer than the surrounding air and thus rising?).

In badminton they use slower shuttlecocks for high altitude or cold weather and faster shuttlecocks for sea level and warm temperature.

ben

12
by Duff(J) (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:04pm

Isn't the gravity effect something like 1/20 of 1%? (Approx 1 extra mile from the center of a 4000-mile-radius Earth.) I wouldn't think that would make very much of a difference on football field distances, would it?

16
by Temo :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:37pm

No, I'm pretty sure Aaron is "really" talking about air density more than gravity when he mentions elevation.

17
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:16pm

Yeah, air density. Hey, I'm not a scientist. :)

19
by Theo :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 6:40pm

Wouldn't a football game on the moon be awesome?

27
by bubqr :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 11:22am

Jamarcus Russell would be able to throw a ball on Earth while on his knees, and A.Davis would sign him on a 50 years, 4000 M$ contract as a consequence.

23
by zlionsfan :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 7:43pm

One of the things I love about this site is that in the first 20 or so posts, various people mention several factors that could affect "record punting numbers", whereas other, larger sites would probably have comments like "punterz BEST EVAR!!!!" and "you suck".

I need to do some work and I will come back with some data of my own.

24
by Ivarsson.se :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 5:13am

I just did the work, FO has a 86.5% SPVOA (Subject-adjusted Posting Value Over Average) so far the 2009 season, which does project to a new record. Usually the quality of posts go down as the season goes on though (playoffs, intellectual wear-and-tear), so we'll se where we end up come Pro Bowl.

For comparison, that number is way above corresponding values for SI (-10.2%), ESPN (-46.5%), FOX Sports (-NaN%, according to my calculations. I apparently need to get a 64-bit box...)

29
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 5:09pm

I think you'll find the quality of RaiderJoe's posts gets better by virtue of their continued optimism despite the Raider's being completely out of the playoff picture by week 4 ...

28
by drever (not verified) :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 12:24pm

regression to the mean.

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