Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Mar 2009

Pats Working On Acquiring Peppers

The Patriots are reportedly in talks to deal the 34th overall pick in the draft (the second-round pick they got from the Chiefs) to Carolina in exchange for Julius Peppers, who would then move to outside linebacker in their 3-4 scheme.

NFL.com writer Vic Carucci says that league sources say that "...the Patriots and Panthers are hoping to complete the deal at some point between the March 22-25 NFL owners meetings and the start of the draft on April 25."

Thanks to reader PatsFan for the link.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 16 Mar 2009

53 comments, Last at 19 Mar 2009, 10:31am by Vlad

Comments

1
by KSR (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:21pm

I'm not buying this at all. Peppers will want to be paid commensurate with his skill, which is at DE. If he shifts to OLB, his pay would decrease (in my mind), as he's unproven. Furthermore, I'm not sold on him being a great OLB either.

I just think there would be too much money tied up in a player who is unproven at his position. Unless the Pats are banking on an uncapped year in 2010, in which case all bets are off.

6
by rokurota (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:35pm

I think you're right, this smells like it's coming from someone trying to solicit more offers (the Panthers or Peppers's agent, I'd assume). For the Patriots to leak a deadline would also be highly out of character. Paying pinnacle-of-the-market money plus an extremely valuable draft pick for a guy with a big name and an attitude problem...I think the term for that is Snyderism.

2
by Costa :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:24pm

Wow, is that really the best offer the Panthers can get for him?

4
by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:30pm

It's not that shocking. Peppers has the potential to be one of the top defensive players in the league, but he has disappointed by not quite reaching that potential. He's also 29. I'd say one of the earliest picks in the 2nd round is fair.

(Formerly "The McNabb Bowl Game Anomaly")

36
by mattymatty :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 7:55am

You would think the Redskins would be willing to give their 1st rounder this year and every first rounder into the next decade for Peppers. I'm shocked that this player is being shopped and Washington isn't being mentioned.

48
by Boston Dan :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 12:38pm

Vic Caruuci on WEEI in Boston yesterday says the Panthers don't want to pay a first round pick.

3
by DZ (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:30pm

Marshal Faulk was traded for a 2nd round pick in his prime.

A 2nd round pick is nothing to sneeze at.

15
by Jimmy :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:07pm

Yes Marshall Faulk was traded for a 2nd rounder. However I would rank it as one of the dumbest trades I have ever heard of. The reason the Colts unloaded him was more to do with his high salary demands (back when the cap actually restricted team spending), and the trade worked out pretty well for the Rams. As for the Colts I would say that the best thing the trade did for them was get them in position to take Peyton Manning.

So yes trade a HOF player, but only do it if the QBs available are true franchise calibre players which appears to be a 1 in 5 chance.

18
by ammek :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:37pm

Manning and Faulk actually played on the same team in 1998, Peyton's rookie season. The Faulk trade permitted/obliged Indy to draft Edge James in his place in 1999.

19
by DZ (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:37pm

No, the Colts already had Manning. They used the pick on Mike Peterson. They took Edge James with the 5th pick in the first round. What made that trade dumb wasn't that the Colts wanted to deal Faulk, but that no one in the NFL wanted to give more than a 2nd round pick for him.

22
by Jimmy :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 6:50pm

OK my bad on the timing of the Faulk/Manning combo. I should probably have checked. I still think trading Marshall Faulk for a 2nd round pick is pure lunacy.

37
by mattymatty :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 8:10am

Ah-choo!

5
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:33pm

I didn't like the Patriots getting rid of Mike Vrabel at all, but if they in effect got younger and aquired Julious Peppers for the trade fodder then all bets are off.

Peppers would be fantastic on a Bellicheck team. He is the ultimate "versatile" player as he was once a dominant basketball player at UNC.

I do know that inbetween basketball & football season he would condition to very his playing weight 20-30 pounds to be in peak shape for his position and sport. Could you imagine the hard work and strategic planning involved to make it happen? It isn't just about varying your reps in the gym, but what you eat, how much you eat, the cardio etc.

If he was a 34 OLB for BB then that is much different than being say an OLB for a 43 team. Even in Carolina you'd often see him drop back on zone blitzes.

The guy was a star basketball player and you mean to tell me you don't think he'd be nimble enough to play OLB? Levon Kirkland could play linebacker at a high level at nearly 300 pounds and Peppers one of the most freakishly athletic guys in the league couldn't play LB under one of the best coaches of all-time ?

If the Patriots aquire Peppers for a 2nd rounder then those NFL futures are going to drop fast and the Patriots will clearly be pegged the Favorite to win the trophy next year.

17
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:15pm

"I didn't like the Patriots getting rid of Mike Vrabel at all,"

Why not? Hes been pretty much terrible for about a season and a half now.

53
by Vlad (not verified) :: Thu, 03/19/2009 - 10:31am

I saw Peppers play basketball in college. "Dominant" isn't exactly the word I'd use. Athletic, and solid inside game, but lazy. Didn't rebound particularly well or aggressively, poor defensive effort (heh!), selfish with the ball. Came off the bench, though I think that was in part a function of him splitting time with football, and he was just a soph when he quit basketball.

7
by andy (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:38pm

why not work peppers at 3-4 end?

8
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:40pm

JP had 14.5 sacks last year and recorded double digit sacks in 5/7 of his pro seasons despite consistantly attracting double and triple teams.

Jared Allen had 14.5 sacks last year and recorded double digit sack totals in 3/5 of his pro seasons ( and was also often doubled/triple teamed although less in Minnesota).

Allen has played in two LESS seasons yet was traded for multiple first round draft picks. If the Patriots got Peppers for an early 2nd round pick it would be a steal.

12
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:57pm

Allen wasn't trying to change positions. You knew he was going to work out. 3-4 OLB requires much more flexability than 4-3 DE. Theres a good chance Peppers can't play it.

That being said, the Patriots have 3 2nd round picks, a 1st, 2 3rds....I don't see how they fit that, and Peppers, in 7M of cap space.

Extending Wilfork and Mankins is a much better use of the $$.

25
by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 7:28pm

Actually, Allen had played in three FEWER seasons than Peppers at the time of his trade, which also means that he was younger then than Peppers is now (by 4 years in fact), which made him a more valuable asset. Allen was at the beginning of his prime, while Peppers is at the end of his.

(Formerly "The McNabb Bowl Game Anomaly")

9
by James-London :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:41pm

A #2 seems like a low-ball offer for Peppers, but how much leverage do the Panthers have? If I understand correctly, they don't have a lot of cap space, so shifting $14M must be something of a priority snd Peppers has made it clear he wants out.

As for the Pats, doesn't their entire starting DL hit free-agency in the next year or two? If this is legit, Kraft must be thinking no more cap. If not, expect Jason Taylor in Foxboro instead.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

10
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:45pm

Oh and Peppers doesn't have any off field character issues like Jared Allen had with his arrests.

11
by Mr Shush :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:48pm

I have to say, I don't really anticipate Peppers having too much trouble with the transition. As Chris says, he certainly has the athleticism, and as a 3-4 OLB he'll still spend most of his time rushing the passer. Hell, it's not like Merriman's much cop in coverage, and I can't think of a 3-4 team that wouldn't love to have him on board (assuming a full recovery from his knee issues). Unlike some teams (I'm looking at you, Snyder), I don't think the Patriots are making mortgage-the-futurey type moves because they're banking on the cap going away, but because they want to win with Brady while he's still good, because it's highly unlikely they're next quarterback will be at the same level. I would say that a 29 year old pass-rusher and a nearly 32 year old quarterback probably have fairly similar NFL life expectancies. If the Patriots traded for a younger player, or drafted one, he wouldn't really have that much extra value for them based on his age, and he would probably cost more (in terms of picks) and be less good. I just think this makes a lot of sense for all involved, unless the Panthers can get significantly more value in trade from someone else.

13
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 4:59pm

"Hell, it's not like Merriman's much cop in coverage, and I can't think of a 3-4 team that wouldn't love to have him on boar"

Despite both being 3-4s, the Patriots play a completely different defence than the chargers.

14
by db :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:01pm

The problem with getting more for Peppers from another team is that he has only given them 4 teams to choose from, 2 division rivals (not going to happen), the Cowboys and an unidentified AFC team. When I first posted on this on the 13th I assumed they would have to give up #23 and #57 as compensation. If they can do it for #34 it would be a steal.

16
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:12pm

Rich I highly respect your opinion but I disagree.

Peppers is extremly versatile. You could argue he is the best athlete in the NFL when you factor in Height, weight, speed, agility, strength, explosion.

The Patriots wouldn't even neccesarily "have" to have him stand up on passing situations and " play LB". They could roll the defense over and have him get in a three point stance and "rush the passer".

There is so much you could do with the guy. He could drop back in coverage, he could rush in a 2 point stance, 3 point stance. He understands the game, he *can* play linebacker, DE, and as somebody else pointed out he could probably play the 5 technique in that defense too.

Peppers has appeared on goalline offense before in the jump ball play. How do you like a 6'7 guy with ups trying to catch a jump ball off a 5'10 cornerback?

1st and goal from the 8:
Brady takes snap in shotgun, draw, handoff to Fred Taylor for a 4 yard gain.
2nd and goal from the 4:
Brady takes snap from shotgun, throws a drag route to Welker for a 3 yard gain.
3rd and goal from the 1....

One one end Brady has 6'5 Randy Moss, on the other end he has 6'7 Julious Peppers, in the slot he has Wes Welker, and in the backfield he has a hard nosed Fred Taylor...

34
by Theo :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 6:00am

Nice dream, the Panthers tried that, but never got the ball to Peppers.

39
by Sophandros :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 8:27am

Tom Brady >>>>>>>>>>>> Jake Delhomme

-------------
Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

20
by Ma Forgot Certificate (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 5:41pm

I like the conversation so far, want to throw in my two cents by saying that Peppers' role in BB's system will likely be similar to Adalius Thomas': up on running downs, on the line in passing downs (allows Wilfork to come off, Warren and Seymore in middle, Peppers and AD outside... scheisse!), and few coverage responsibilities which would likely require a hard hip turn.

Belichick usually finds guys to fit his system, but you can always find a place in your system for a special athlete like Peppers (see Moss, Randy).

21
by MJK :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 6:49pm

I tend to discount the "Peppers is switching positions and couldn't play in Belichick's 3-4" talk. Belichick has consistently shown the ability to create a scheme that adapts to the strengths of his players. In general, his OLB's are required to primarily rush the passer, but also drop in to coverage and handle athletic TE's like Dallas Clark. Vrabel did a million things, but that's because he could do a million things. If Peppers can't do that, then Belichick would probably morph the defense to have a hybrid DE/OLB, the way some other teams have done so with players like Jason Taylor.

So, if (and that's a big if) this trade were to occur, the Pats would have essentially traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for a little bit of cap space and Peppers. Does this look like a better trade then than it did?

23
by ArchnerdUW :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 7:01pm

The only, albeit perhaps insignificant, drawback to all this is that teams with a good TE and a pass catching back could possibly spread out the Patriots, if they stayed in a classic base 3-4, and just eat Peppers and Adalius Thomas alive in coverage. Think what the Patriots used to do to the Steelers. I just am not sure who the linebackers that can handle coverage responsibilities on that defense would be.

That being said, Peppers for a 2nd round pick, with all the other draft picks the team has...I'd do it w/out even blinking. Most I what I said above should be able to be overcome by scheme and coaching.

24
by PaulH (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 7:03pm

I don't have any doubts that Peppers would do well with the Patriots. He's too good of an athlete and Belichick is too good of a defensive mind not to get a lot of production out him.

My question is just how in the world are we *only* talking about a second round pick. Now I know it's a high second -- and plus you have to figure that Peppers will demand a huge contract extension, so that will depress his trade value somewhat -- but surely it will have to be more than that.

Even if the Panthers are just desperate to get Peppers out of Carolina (cap reasons, perhaps?), they will still trade him to the highest-bidder, and surely some of the other teams will be willing to offer more than a high second round pick. I'm thinking this is probably a lowball report, and it will probably end up being more.

Either way, though, the Pats have four picks in the first two rounds in the draft, plus ample cap space (right?), so they have the ammunition needed to get the deal done if they want.

38
by dryheat (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 8:17am

You really can't trade him to the highest bidder, because I don't think any team is going to bid very high for the right to pay Peppers 14 mil for one season and then franchise him for a healthy raise the next year or lose him as a free agent.

A team that would be seriously interested in Peppers would have a contract worked out prior to the trade (that's why he's a non-exclusive franchise player). If Peppers really has a list of four teams he wants to play for, he has no reason to renegotiate with anybody else.

26
by jgeh (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 7:45pm

ArchnerdUW, the Patriots just re-signed Tank Williams for the exact situations that you are talking about. The globe wrote last offseason about Williams practicing in a role similar to the one Rodney Harrison played in the colts pats game in '07. In order to adress a quick, skilled pass catching tight end in Dallas Clark, NE played mostly out of what looked like a 4-3, only with their 3-4 olb's rotating in at DE, and Rodney Harrison playing as an undersized linebacker. Obviously they'd still have that kind of flexability in regards to Peppers and ADT being able to situationally shift from olb to end, and the fact that they didn't cut Williams loose despite his injury indicates to me that NE has faith in his ability to cover tight ends and pass catching rbs.

29
by ArchnerdUW :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 9:53pm

Like I said...the issue I raised was probably not that big of a deal. Clearly if I had more knowledge of the Pats i would have known better. Thanks for the info.

27
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 8:19pm

MJK - Exactly

28
by cov (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 9:20pm

Julius Peppers would fit just fine in Belichick's scheme. There's no way he could be worse dropping back than Willie McGinest, surely, and he was good enough for a couple of superbowl teams...

(And he'd play defensive end in the nickel, which the Pats are in way more snaps than they're in base.)

30
by tphoskin (not verified) :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 10:05pm

if it's the 34th pick, i'd prefer cassel and vrabel as a panthers fan. alas, that deal isn't available.

31
by db :: Mon, 03/16/2009 - 11:04pm

The only thing that I see standing in the way of this is that Peppers isn't under contract. Now that Cassels and Vrabel are gone the Pats have app. $28mil (minus free agent signings) to get it done. I don't see them doing it unless they get a 3-4 year deal. I could also see them packaging up some other picks to move down in round one to pick up Rey Malaluga to solidify there ILB position for years to come. There is no way with an expected 12 picks that they have room for that many rookies to make the team and they are too well run to waste them.

32
by Basilicus (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 2:10am

If it's the 34th pick, there will be a low rounder (5th, or a conditional future 3rd/4th) thrown in, too.

33
by Ryan Harris (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 4:06am

Couple points here ladies.

- Marshall Faulk and HC Jim Mora badly clashed. Faulk and Mora both have said as much on TV and although they have put it behind them at the time it was not working out. Marshall said as much in an interview that after Peytons rookie season "it was time to move on".

Also Marshall wasnt Marshall yet, he was good for sure. But it wasnt until Martz got his mitts on him that he turned into 1000rush/1000recieving Faulk.

- Peppers will be a beast with the Pats. He will rush on 3rd and long and still probably get 8-9 sacks. He will be best on early downs though; can you imagine trying to throw anything over the middle with 6'7 Peppers and his Octopus arms? Terrifying. Dont forget that he was projected as a potential 1st round pick if he went the NBA route, so he has the athleticism to play that role.

- Getting the 34th pick is a deal that the Panthers shouldnt pass up. Its not a money thing for Peppers ( I know he wont play for peanuts, still), the Panthers offered him a fair deal. Julius doesnt want to play for Carolina, its as simple as that. So they can either pay him $14million this year and have him potentially not play his hardest only to have to pay him $17million next year and have him a year older and have his trade value further eroded. Or they can take the pick and perhaps another late rounder and get something in return.

He did great things for them, they damn near won a superbowl and were close two other years. Time to move on.

35
by td (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 6:58am

The Panthers would be crazy to do this. They were among the elite teams in the NFC last year, and Peppers was their only great player on defense. They shouldn't even consider trading him to another contender. How many teams have dealt with the Pats and felt like they came out ahead?

41
by Guy #1 (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 10:00am

Could Belichick be our generation's Red Auerbach?!?!?!

Of course, he'd need something like a dozen more super bowl rings...

51
by cd6! (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 9:31pm

I imagine the Chiefs are satisfied.

40
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 9:49am

I don't know about this whole deal. I'm a Colts fan, and this really doesn't scare me that much. Yeah, he's a great player when he's motivated, but for the money he's going to expect (Haynesworth territory), I say go ahead and knock yourselves out. If it was just the 34th overall pick, the Patriots would be stupid not to do it, but it's not just that. It's going to take a LOT of money to make this guy happy, and he's shown a willingness to tank in the past if he's not happy. And yes, I'm aware that the same things could have been said of Randy Moss.

Whoever mentioned the possibility of Peppers covering Dallas Clark, I'm going to bet on Clark in that matchup. Linebackers have trouble covering Clark, let alone defensive linemen, no matter how athletic they are. Peppers is extremely athletic... for a defensive lineman. But his coverage skills will never be at the level of a safety, which is what it takes to cover Clark, or Antonio Gates, or Tony Gonzalez. The reality is, you can't pay Julius Peppers a $100 million contract and have him running AWAY from the line of scrimmage.

42
by Guy #1 (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 10:03am

Peppers will bump the TE on his side at the line before rushing, and then a safety (or hybrid safety/linebacker like Harrison or Tank Williams) will do the actual covering. And re: cap space, I see two options: One is a huge guaranteed salary in the uncapped year (you know Kraft has the money), the other is that... it kinda hurts to say it but I think it's on the horizon... Richard Seymour might be on his way out.

49
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 3:00pm

That could be a possible coverage plan, although I was responding to a suggestion that Peppers would actually cover Dallas Clark. I'm not sure I like the whole chip-and-cover plan though. That would neutralize Peppers' quickness at the snap, which is part of what makes him a good pass rusher. It gains the element of surprise, but it's also asking a player to do something outside of his strengths.

I've thought of the whole "heavily backloaded into the uncapped year" contract idea, and I think I'm going to really hate the owners if they start doing that. If they start doing that, it's going to make resolving the impending labor dispute even more difficult, because the owners will have more incentive to push it into the uncapped year. And once we get to the uncapped year, a lockout will be on the horizon.

45
by Mr. Miyagi (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 11:02am

I can't see the patriots doing this deal for anything remotely close to haynesworth money. They would probably let Seymour walk after this year, but they absolutely need Wilfork on the team. Peppers would be an impact player, but a reliable, athletic guy who can clog the middle is far more valuable in this defense. If anyone is getting a five or six year deal (i.e. five or six years likely to be honoured), it's going to be Wilfork, who is free after this year.
They will also have to leave room to sign a corner or two next year, again, so all told, I think it more likely that this is posturing by Peppers' agent.
Maybe, if peppers is serious about wanting to shift to OLB, he takes a 1-year discount to establish himself as an OLB, but do you trade a high 2 for that?

50
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 3:03pm

I can't see the Patriots doing the deal for Haynesworth-level money either, and that's why this whole scenario really doesn't worry me that much. Peppers is going to want a contract in that area, and the Patriots would be stupid to give it to him. So I'm guessing that if they do this deal they'll either end up with an unhappy player or a bloated contract on their hands.

43
by GlennW :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 10:48am

This morning on a local radio show Adam Schefter stated that there's a 99% chance that Peppers is NOT going to New England. So obviously there's a major difference of opinion over there at nfl.com/NFLN.

44
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 11:01am

Do you honestly think Bellicheck is going to consistantly have Peppers running around covering Dallas Clark on passing downs or you think it is more likely he will be rushing the quarterback or as somebody else said, chipping Clark and then rushing the passer?

Is he a lineman? Right now... But then again sometimes he was a star basketball player for a top 5 basketball team and sometimes he was a star football player for a respectable UNC team.

Right now he is "listed" at 6'7, 283. He could easily drop 25 pounds and be a nasty hybrid outside rusher. You don't think Bellicheck could properly utilize him? Is Bellicheck known for doing maximizing or minimizing talent?

Troy Brown could move from WR to DB, but Peppers can't shed some muscle and stand up? A lot of times in 3-4 defenses the two OLB's flex out and play on the LOS anyway.

In all honestly, Peppers can probably play the 5 technique and the two OLB spots in the Patriots defense all at a very high level.

46
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 11:30am

Marvez has an interesting scenario (purely hypothetical) on Fox Sports (link in name). Trade Peppers and a QB (Delhomme or Moore) to Denver for Jay Cutler and some change. Peppers gets to play in a 3-4, the Broncs get a defensive player who will immediately improve them + a veteran stopgap QB (w/ Delhomme) and Cutler gets out of town and onto a good team that could certainly use him. Denver gets to keep its #1 pick to use on a QB of the future.

Maybe that just makes too much sense, but if I were a GM, I'd pull the trigger on that.

47
by Mr Shush :: Tue, 03/17/2009 - 12:30pm

I don't think that's enough value for Denver. I'm not saying they might not do it, but if I were a Broncos fan I'd hate that trade.

52
by cjfarls :: Wed, 03/18/2009 - 4:07pm

Yeah, I agree with with Mr. Shush on the idea of Cutler for Peppers/Delhomme.

If Denver is forced to trade Cutler, they are going into full-blown rebuild mode (even more than they are already). An old QB & highly-expensive older DE don't help them with that.

Now if they can keep Cutler and make him happy, adding someone like Peppers makes a whole lot of sense...

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